Bill Overview
Title: BOLIVAR Act
Description: This bill temporarily prohibits an executive agency from entering into a contract for the procurement of goods or services with any person that it determines, with the concurrence of the Department of State, knowingly engages in significant business operations with the Maduro regime in Venezuela. The bill lists exceptions, including where vital to U.S. national security or as necessary for purposes of providing humanitarian assistance, disaster relief and other urgent lifesaving measures, or to carry out noncombatant evacuations. The prohibition shall not apply to contracts that support U.S. government activities in Venezuela or to contracts with international organizations. The State Department may waive the requirements of this bill upon determining that to do so is in the national interest.
Sponsors: Sen. Scott, Rick [R-FL]
Target Audience
Population: Businesses and their employees engaging with the Maduro regime in Venezuela
Estimated Size: 100000
- The bill affects businesses that engage in significant operations with the Maduro regime in Venezuela, meaning global companies that operate in the Venezuelan market are primary stakeholders.
- U.S. businesses seeking government contracts that also have dealings with the Maduro regime will be impacted, as they must choose between pursuing U.S. government contracts or maintaining their Venezuelan operations.
- The State Department plays a critical role in determining who is affected, as they must concur with determinations of significant operations and can issue waivers.
Reasoning
- The BOLIVAR Act impacts businesses with significant operations in Venezuela, notably affecting large multinational companies. The economic impact on these businesses may trickle down to employees who might face reduced job security or changes in job roles if their company loses government contracts.
- Given the budget constraints, the policy is likely to impact highly interconnected businesses rather than small companies, thus influencing primarily those in high-level operations or roles connected to international ventures.
- The U.S. State Department's involvement introduces a layer of uncertainty, as waivers could mitigate impact, but the criteria for significant operation determinations will make some employees feel vulnerable.
- Most average American workers are unlikely to be directly impacted, but those employed by affected businesses could face secondary consequences due to corporate restructuring or operational shifts.
Simulated Interviews
Oil Company Executive (Houston, Texas)
Age: 45 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm concerned about this policy affecting our ability to secure U.S. government contracts while maintaining our operations in Venezuela.
- Our operations in Venezuela are integral to our company’s strategy and any change could lead to significant job restructuring.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 4 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 3 | 4 |
Financial Analyst (New York, New York)
Age: 50 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy introduces instability in the market, affecting my clients' portfolios, potentially leading to reduced business in the financial sector.
- I worry this may also lead to broader economic impacts if companies are forced to withdraw or modify their operations drastically.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 4 | 6 |
Senior Manager in Logistics (Miami, Florida)
Age: 38 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 8.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Our business with Venezuela is significant. Adjusting our strategy due to this policy could lead to redundancies.
- There's uncertainty regarding the policy's interpretation and its long-term effects on our company.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 4 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 3 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 3 | 5 |
IT Director (Atlanta, Georgia)
Age: 42 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Our Venezuelan operations involve critical services, and this policy introduces uncertainty into our future strategy.
- Some of our U.S. government contracts may be at risk, necessitating a strategic review of client priorities and services.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 4 | 5 |
Policy Lobbyist for International Trade (Washington, D.C.)
Age: 58 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 9
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy will impact lobbying patterns heavily, affecting my influence and presence in sectors involving Venezuela.
- There's a likely shift in focus toward waiver acquisitions, which changes our strategy significantly.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 7 |
Corporate Lawyer (Seattle, Washington)
Age: 30 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm busy advising clients on compliance and the strategic impacts of the policy.
- The ambiguity of the policy’s terms regarding 'significant operations' creates a legal grey area for our clients.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
Social Media Specialist (Los Angeles, California)
Age: 25 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Our brand’s engagement with Venezuela was already under scrutiny before this policy.
- I expect little direct personal impact besides adjusting content for Venezuelan markets.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
HR Manager in Aerospace (Chicago, Illinois)
Age: 47 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 7.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy might affect employment for staff currently in Venezuela, causing HR adjustments needing acute attention.
- This could lead to fewer international assignments, affecting job satisfaction and roles.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 4 | 5 |
Environmental Researcher (San Francisco, California)
Age: 36 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I see potential positive ecological impacts if the policy leads to large corporations reevaluating their resource extraction projects in Venezuela.
- My research workload may increase due to rising interest in these geopolitical changes.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Entrepreneur in Import-Export Business (Miami, Florida)
Age: 29 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy adds an unpredictable layer to our business operations surrounding Venezuelan imports.
- We’re vigilant but expect minor direct impacts unless secondary regulations follow this policy.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 6 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $15000000 (Low: $10000000, High: $20000000)
Year 2: $13000000 (Low: $8000000, High: $18000000)
Year 3: $10000000 (Low: $7000000, High: $15000000)
Year 5: $7000000 (Low: $5000000, High: $10000000)
Year 10: $5000000 (Low: $3000000, High: $8000000)
Year 100: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Key Considerations
- The extent to which businesses will be able to adjust their operations to comply with the bill and still pursue U.S. government contracts.
- The ability of the State Department to efficiently administer waivers could affect both cost and savings real outcomes.
- Market conditions and business strategies concerning the Venezuelan market can heavily influence actual economic impacts.