Bill Overview
Title: Healthy Climate and Family Security Act of 2022
Description: This bill addresses the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by establishing a program that caps the emissions of carbon dioxide and auctions carbon permits to producers or importers of crude oil, domestic or foreign coal operations, or certain natural gas entities. The bill also establishes the Healthy Climate Trust Fund for the proceeds of the auctions to be distributed as dividend payments to U.S. individuals.
Sponsors: Sen. Van Hollen, Chris [D-MD]
Target Audience
Population: Individuals globally affected by efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
Estimated Size: 335000000
- The bill's primary impact is on reducing greenhouse gas emissions globally, which affects every person on the planet due to the global nature of climate change.
- Climate policies such as the one described indirectly impact global populations by contributing to the efforts to mitigate climate change, which affects sea levels, weather patterns, and natural disasters.
- The auction system specified in the bill targets large carbon emitters, which are primarily industries and businesses that operate globally, though hosted in specific countries.
Reasoning
- The budget constraints of $2 billion in year 1 and $17 billion over 10 years require careful consideration of how the policy dividends are distributed among U.S. residents.
- The policy is expected to provide financial dividends to U.S. individuals, which may improve their well-being slightly depending on the amount received.
- The policy's impact on large carbon emitters may raise costs for these industries, potentially impacting employment in sectors like oil, coal, and natural gas. Conversely, it could stimulate growth in renewable energy sectors.
- Given the scale of the U.S. population (335 million), not every individual may notice a significant change from the dividends alone, but the long-term environmental benefits and the symbolic nature of receiving dividends might boost overall well-being.
- Estimates suggest that while all U.S. individuals are affected by the dividends, the actual tangible impact of those dividends on individual well-being will vary based on personal circumstances such as income level, geographical location, and employment in related industries.
Simulated Interviews
Teacher (Kansas City, KS)
Age: 35 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 15/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I think it's great we're doing something about climate change, but I'm worried about how much the dividends will actually help us day to day.
- Hopeful that teaching about these changes will inspire my students to think more about environmental issues.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 6 |
Oil Rig Worker (Houston, TX)
Age: 48 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy makes me nervous about my job, but I understand we have to do something about climate change.
- Not sure the dividends will make up for potential job losses in the oil industry.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 5 |
Software Developer (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 27 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm excited to see policies like this taking shape, the dividends are a bonus.
- Hope more people in tech see the possibilities in developing solutions that are climate-friendly.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 7 |
Retired (Miami, FL)
Age: 60 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 14/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Every little bit helps when you're on a fixed income, so dividends are welcome.
- Concerned about how climate change will impact south Florida, so supportive of emission reductions.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 5 |
Small Business Owner (solar installation) (Chicago, IL)
Age: 42 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I see this as a huge opportunity for growth in renewable sectors like mine.
- Dividends help, but I'm more interested in how the policy will shift industry focus over time.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 10 | 7 |
Freelance Writer (Portland, OR)
Age: 30 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 18/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm enthusiastic about this policy's potential to lower emissions and promote awareness.
- The dividend feels like a token effort, but welcomed nonetheles.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 6 |
Steelworker (Pittsburgh, PA)
Age: 50 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This could mean layoffs or plant closures, which worries me.
- The dividends won't offset the potential job losses for many in my field.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 5 |
College Student (Burlington, VT)
Age: 21 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 16/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm optimistic and glad my generation is finally seeing impactful policies.
- Dividends could help with student expenses, but more about the principle in climate action.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 8 |
Retired Farmer (Mobile, AL)
Age: 65 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 13/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Climate change has made farming harder, hopeful for positive changes from this policy.
- Dividends are appreciated, especially on a fixed income.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 6 |
Research Scientist (Seattle, WA)
Age: 39 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 11/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This could bring more attention and funding to projects like mine.
- The dividends are a positive reinforcement, though not critical to my well-being.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 10 | 7 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $2000000000 (Low: $1800000000, High: $2200000000)
Year 2: $1900000000 (Low: $1700000000, High: $2100000000)
Year 3: $1800000000 (Low: $1600000000, High: $2000000000)
Year 5: $1700000000 (Low: $1500000000, High: $1900000000)
Year 10: $1500000000 (Low: $1300000000, High: $1700000000)
Year 100: $1000000000 (Low: $800000000, High: $1200000000)
Key Considerations
- The long-term fiscal impact depends on the effectiveness of reducing emissions and the energy sector's adaptation to carbon caps.
- Distribution of dividends has potential socioeconomic impacts equivalent to basic income support, affecting consumer spending.
- Global responses and actions by other nations could influence the effectiveness and perception of similar carbon reduction strategies worldwide.