Bill Overview
Title: Venezuelan Democracy Act
Description: This bill requires or authorizes various actions, including sanctions, targeting the current government of Venezuela and any nondemocratic successor government. The bill also authorizes certain types of assistance for the people of Venezuela and to support democracy-building efforts. Under this bill, the President (1) must impose property-blocking sanctions on Venezuela; and (2) may withhold U.S. foreign assistance or arms-related assistance from any country that provides assistance to the government of Venezuela. The bill also prohibits U.S. persons (individuals or entities) from engaging in transactions involving (1) the debt of Venezuela's government, or (2) any digital currency issued by Venezuela's government. Additionally, the Department of the Treasury must oppose Venezuela's admission to certain international financial institutions (such as the International Monetary Fund) and to withhold certain payments to such institutions if they approve loans or other assistance to Venezuela. Some of the actions required under this bill, including the imposition of sanctions, may be modified or suspended if the President determines that a transition government is in power in Venezuela. Criteria for a determination that a transition government is in power include full reinstatement of the National Assembly convened on January 6, 2016, and public commitments to organizing free and fair elections. Sanctions under this bill shall be terminated if the President determines that a democratically elected government is in power. Assistance under certain programs (such as assistance under the Food for Peace Act) may be provided to Venezuela once it has a democratically elected government.
Sponsors: Sen. Risch, James E. [R-ID]
Target Audience
Population: People of Venezuela
Estimated Size: 500000
- The bill directly aims to influence the government of Venezuela, attempting to discourage non-democratic practices.
- It intends to impact the livelihood of Venezuelan citizens by potentially destabilizing the current government to encourage democratic change.
- Citizens of Venezuela may experience indirect effects from sanctions, such as economic impacts or restrictions on access to financial systems.
- The U.S. might engage in democracy-building efforts, which could affect Venezuelan social and political structures.
- Global financial institutions may alter their engagement with Venezuela due to U.S. opposition, impacting the nation's economy.
Reasoning
- The policy primarily impacts those involved in trade and financial transactions with the Venezuelan government, hence focusing on individuals or businesses with prior investments or trade deals.
- The budget constraints are substantial, so only a small proportion of U.S entities directly engaged with Venezuela should see impacts.
- Most Americans remain unaffected economically but may have human rights or ethical concerns, indirectly affecting their wellbeing.
- The increase in prohibitive measures could trigger feelings of justice or ethical distress among those concerned with international diplomacy and democracy.
Simulated Interviews
Import-export business owner (Miami, FL)
Age: 50 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I think the policy can put significant strain on my business since it restricts transactions with Venezuela.
- It could lead to higher costs and the need to adjust supply chains.
- Democracy-building efforts are important, but they must consider economic impacts on businesses like mine.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 8 |
Human rights advocate (Washington, D.C.)
Age: 34 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The sanctions are a strong message but could deteriorate the living conditions of ordinary Venezuelans temporarily.
- Policies like these create international attention around human rights issues.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 8 |
Financial analyst (New York, NY)
Age: 45 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy will likely have a short-term destabilizing effect on the Venezuelan economy.
- Increased volatility could present investment risks but also high-reward opportunities.
- Monitoring compliance will be crucial for companies to avoid penalties.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Oil company engineer (Houston, TX)
Age: 29 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 4.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy could impact our operations due to sanctions on Venezuelan government transactions.
- There is uncertainty about our investment's future in Venezuela.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 4 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 7 |
College student (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 23 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Sanctions could catalyze democratic reform in Venezuela which could be a case study for my research.
- Finding balance between sanctions and humanitarian aid is crucial for such policies.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 8 |
Foreign policy analyst (Atlanta, GA)
Age: 40 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy aligns with American diplomatic strategies and pushes for democracy.
- However, it may strain bilateral relations with countries aiding Venezuela.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 8 |
Retired teacher (Boston, MA)
Age: 60 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Initiatives like these show America's commitment to international justice.
- I worry about the immediate impacts on the Venezuelan population.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Banker (Dallas, TX)
Age: 38 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Sanctions could complicate financial transactions and risk assessment for our clients.
- Risk management strategies will need revision based on the new policy landscape.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Software developer (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 26 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 9
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The prohibition on Venezuelan digital currency might alter blockchain technology markets.
- It's an interesting case for watching government intervention in tech domains.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Academic researcher (Chicago, IL)
Age: 52 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 4.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy highlights US commitment towards promoting democratic values.
- Research in this area could steer future U.S. policy advisories.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 8 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $150000000 (Low: $120000000, High: $200000000)
Year 2: $160000000 (Low: $130000000, High: $210000000)
Year 3: $170000000 (Low: $140000000, High: $220000000)
Year 5: $190000000 (Low: $150000000, High: $250000000)
Year 10: $220000000 (Low: $170000000, High: $300000000)
Year 100: $500000000 (Low: $400000000, High: $600000000)
Key Considerations
- Proper enforcement mechanisms for sanctions will be crucial to meet the policy's objectives.
- Monitoring compliance with sanctions and assistance regulations will require dedicated resources.
- The success of democracy-building efforts may depend on broader international support beyond U.S. actions.
- Economic sanctions might indirectly impact Venezuelan civilians, which could necessitate increased humanitarian assistance.
- Aligning with multilateral international policies could optimize the effectiveness of this policy.