Policy Impact Analysis - 117/S/5306

Bill Overview

Title: Promoting a Resolution to the Tibet-China Conflict Act

Description: This bill addresses issues relating to Tibet, including by establishing a statutory definition of Tibet that includes areas in Chinese provinces outside the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR). For the purposes of U.S. policies and activities relating to Tibet, this bill defines Tibet to include the TAR and the Tibetan areas of the Qinghai, Sichuan, Gansu, and Yunnan provinces. (Generally, when China's government refers to Tibet, it means only the TAR, while Tibetan exile groups consider historical Tibet to include the TAR as well as areas in the provinces included in this bill's definition. China's government formally established the TAR in 1965.) Furthermore, the objectives of the Office of the U.S. Special Coordinator for Tibetan Issues shall include working to ensure that U.S. government statements and documents counter disinformation about Tibet by China's government and the Chinese Communist Party, including disinformation about Tibet's history and institutions. The bill also authorizes the office to take other actions to counter such disinformation. This bill also states that it is U.S. policy that the conflict between Tibet and China is unresolved and that Tibet's legal status remains to be determined in accordance with international law.

Sponsors: Sen. Merkley, Jeff [D-OR]

Target Audience

Population: People affected by the Tibet-China conflict

Estimated Size: 100000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Tibetan Activist (New York, NY)

Age: 32 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 2/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy is a welcome step to bring more clarity to the U.S. stance on Tibet.
  • I hope it results in more informed discussions about Tibet amongst policymakers and the general public.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 7
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 9 7
Year 10 9 7
Year 20 8 7

Technology Sector (San Francisco, CA)

Age: 45 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Although it's encouraging to see movement on Tibet, I doubt there will be immediate tangible benefits.
  • The policy could, however, lay the groundwork for more informed international relations.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 8 6
Year 5 8 6
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 6 6

Graduate Student in International Relations (Austin, TX)

Age: 29 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 2.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Policies like these can influence international law discussions, which impacts my research focus.
  • Stuff like this makes me hopeful for future diplomatic tremors, even if academic for now.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 7 5
Year 5 7 5
Year 10 6 5
Year 20 5 5

Retired State Department Official (Washington, D.C.)

Age: 60 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy strengthens the moral stance of the U.S. on human rights, which is highly valuable.
  • It may spark crucial discussions but requires careful negotiation with China.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 6 6

College Student (Los Angeles, CA)

Age: 22 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 1.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Policies that address global human rights issues inspire me.
  • Though small in the U.S., the Tibetan community's struggles resonate especially when recognized by major powers.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 7 7

Human Rights Lawyer (Chicago, IL)

Age: 40 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 4.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy is a positive first step in framing the international dialogue about Tibet.
  • Implementation should focus on diplomatic leverage which might enhance U.S.'s role globally.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 8 6
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 6 6

Educator (Seattle, WA)

Age: 50 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 2.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Educating about geopolitics is critical; policies like this can foster debate.
  • There's potential for a positive shift in educational focus if this gains traction.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 6 5
Year 5 6 5
Year 10 6 5
Year 20 5 5

Business Executive (Boston, MA)

Age: 55 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Policies reflecting ethical stances are vital for businesses' reputations.
  • This aligns with ethical principles, though direct impact on business seems limited currently.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 6 5
Year 5 6 5
Year 10 5 5
Year 20 5 5

Social Worker (Denver, CO)

Age: 30 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 1.0 years

Commonness: 9/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I see potential for this policy to extend awareness of cultural and human rights issues.
  • Direct impact on the communities I serve might be minimal, but awareness is key.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 6 6
Year 20 5 5

Journalist (Houston, TX)

Age: 38 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 2.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Policies like these serve as interesting stories worth following for shifts in international dialogue.
  • It remains to be seen how much impact it will have beyond rhetoric.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 6 5
Year 5 6 5
Year 10 5 5
Year 20 5 5

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $5000000 (Low: $3000000, High: $7000000)

Year 2: $5000000 (Low: $3000000, High: $7000000)

Year 3: $5000000 (Low: $3000000, High: $7000000)

Year 5: $5000000 (Low: $3000000, High: $7000000)

Year 10: $5000000 (Low: $3000000, High: $7000000)

Year 100: $5000000 (Low: $3000000, High: $7000000)

Key Considerations