Policy Impact Analysis - 117/S/5305

Bill Overview

Title: Stop Arctic Ocean Drilling Act of 2022

Description: This bill limits oil and gas leasing in Arctic areas of the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS). Specifically, the bill prohibits the Department of the Interior from issuing or extending a lease or any other authorization for the exploration, development, or production of oil, natural gas, or any other mineral in Arctic areas of the OCS. In addition, the bill declares that it is the policy of the United States that the Arctic Ocean should be managed for the best interests of the people of the United States, including by keeping fossil fuels in the ground to avoid the dangerous impacts of climate change.

Sponsors: Sen. Merkley, Jeff [D-OR]

Target Audience

Population: People worldwide affected by climate change and energy policies

Estimated Size: 335000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Commercial Fisherwoman (Anchorage, Alaska)

Age: 45 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I worry that stopping drilling could impact our local economy but maintaining the natural balance is equally important.
  • If the policy leads to more sustainable fishing environments, it could be beneficial long-term.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 8 5
Year 10 9 4
Year 20 9 3

Oil Rig Engineer (Houston, Texas)

Age: 37 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 15.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The potential loss of jobs in our industry is worrying, even though there are clear environmental arguments for the policy.
  • Investments in renewable energy could offer new opportunities if managed right.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 6 7
Year 3 5 6
Year 5 5 6
Year 10 4 6
Year 20 4 5

Environmental Activist (New York, New York)

Age: 29 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This bill is a step in the right direction for protecting our climate and shows the U.S. is taking responsibility.
  • I'm hopeful that this will increase awareness and adoption of clean energy technologies.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 9 8
Year 2 9 8
Year 3 9 7
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 8 6
Year 20 8 5

Inupiat Elder (Fairbanks, Alaska)

Age: 60 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Keeping the land safe from more drilling is crucial for our way of life.
  • Climate changes have already altered hunting seasons and affected wildlife patterns.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 6 4
Year 5 7 3
Year 10 7 2
Year 20 8 2

Climate Scientist (Los Angeles, California)

Age: 52 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm optimistic about the prospects for better environmental stewardship across the board if the policy passes.
  • This could spur more research funding and public interest in Arctic science.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 9 8
Year 5 9 8
Year 10 9 8
Year 20 9 8

Teacher (Chicago, Illinois)

Age: 40 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 9/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Policies like these help me teach the next generation the importance of sustainable practices.
  • There is always a balance to be struck between energy needs and environmental health.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 8 7
Year 20 7 6

Retired (Miami, Florida)

Age: 54 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 15.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Climate policies are needed as rising waters threaten our homes every storm season.
  • Sometimes I worry about the cost implications if energy prices go up.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 5
Year 5 7 4
Year 10 7 4
Year 20 7 3

Tech Company Employee (Seattle, Washington)

Age: 33 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 12.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I believe transitioning away from fossil fuels is critical for our future and tech companies should play a role.
  • This policy could push innovation in clean technologies.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 9 8
Year 5 9 8
Year 10 9 8
Year 20 9 7

Commercial Real Estate Developer (Charleston, South Carolina)

Age: 58 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Policies like these can influence property development, especially in coastal areas.
  • There is potential for increased regulations that could affect my business.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 5 6
Year 20 5 5

Sustainability Consultant (Portland, Oregon)

Age: 25 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 15.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy is a positive move towards reducing long-term climate impact.
  • Clients are increasingly interested in sustainable practices, and such policies foster this interest.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 9 7
Year 20 9 6

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $250000000 (Low: $150000000, High: $350000000)

Year 2: $255000000 (Low: $152500000, High: $357500000)

Year 3: $260000000 (Low: $156000000, High: $364000000)

Year 5: $270000000 (Low: $162000000, High: $378000000)

Year 10: $300000000 (Low: $180000000, High: $420000000)

Year 100: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)

Key Considerations