Bill Overview
Title: Protecting America's Economy from the Carbon Bubble Act of 2022
Description: This bill prohibits certain financial companies (including bank holding companies, savings and loan holding companies, and insured depository institutions) from involvement in fossil fuel production. Prohibited activities include providing loans to and making investments in fossil fuel companies or projects, facilitating transactions that fund new fossil fuel production, securitizing assets that provide funds for new fossil fuel production, and entering into certain derivatives transactions related to new fossil fuel production. Violators are subject to criminal and civil penalties.
Sponsors: Sen. Merkley, Jeff [D-OR]
Target Audience
Population: people employed or financially involved in the global fossil fuel industry
Estimated Size: 5000000
- The global fossil fuel industry supports millions of jobs and is a significant part of the global economy; thus, any legislation affecting this industry could impact a large number of people globally.
- Financial institutions play a critical role in funding fossil fuel production projects worldwide, and any regulations that restrict these activities could decrease investments in this sector globally.
- Reducing investments in fossil fuels could accelerate the transition to renewable energy, impacting industries and workers involved in both fossil fuel and green energy sectors.
- Demand for fossil fuels is global; hence, restrictions in financial markets might lead to shifts in fossil fuel production and investments internationally.
Reasoning
- The population affected primarily includes people who are directly or indirectly employed by or invested in the fossil fuel industry, as well as those in financial sectors linked to fossil fuel financing.
- There will be variation in impact based on geographic location. States heavily invested in fossil fuel production like Texas and North Dakota might see more significant changes compared to others.
- Younger generations might be more supportive of the policy due to its focus on environmental protection, while individuals nearing retirement in the affected sectors might fear job instability.
- The policy budget allows for investment into green technologies, which might ease the transition for some workers, but not all regions or sectors will be equally equipped to transition smoothly.
- Interviews should account for individuals who are not directly impacted to provide a full spectrum of effects, including people from emerging green sectors.
Simulated Interviews
Oil Rig Engineer (Houston, Texas)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm concerned about my job security. There aren't many alternative job options in my area without moving.
- If the policy results in reduced production, it might push more people in my position out of work.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 4 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 3 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 3 | 4 |
Investment Banker (New York, New York)
Age: 29 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I see potential growth in renewable investments post-policy, which can be an exciting opportunity.
- However, there are short-term adjustment challenges and existing deals that we have to navigate cautiously.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 5 |
Small Business Owner (oil equipment supplier) (Williston, North Dakota)
Age: 50 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm worried about losing my family business if the demand drops significantly due to this policy.
- It's unfair to small business owners who have invested everything in this industry.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 3 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 3 | 4 |
| Year 5 | 2 | 4 |
| Year 10 | 2 | 3 |
| Year 20 | 1 | 3 |
Renewable Energy Project Manager (San Francisco, California)
Age: 34 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm optimistic that this policy will drive more investment into the renewable industry.
- This can promote job growth and innovation in clean energy.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 10 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 10 | 7 |
Accountant (Chicago, Illinois)
Age: 40 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- It's a necessary shift for environmental reasons, but it needs strategic financial planning to prevent economic instability.
- I'm concerned for some of my long-term clients who might see reduced revenues.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 5 |
Retired Energy Executive (Dallas, Texas)
Age: 60 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I worry about the impact on pensions and investments tied to fossil fuels.
- It's complex; I've benefited from this sector, but I understand the necessity for change.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 5 |
University Student (Austin, Texas)
Age: 23 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 9
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Finally, a policy that aligns with the science and what we need to do for future generations.
- This might open more job opportunities in my field after graduation.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 10 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 10 | 9 |
Fossil Fuel Regulatory Analyst (Los Angeles, California)
Age: 52 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy could streamline my work by aligning regulations with policy goals.
- It provides a chance for regulatory frameworks to catch up with climate goals.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 4 |
Retired School Teacher (Phoenix, Arizona)
Age: 65 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 15/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm concerned about the impact on my investments, but I understand that change is necessary for environmental reasons.
- It's a dilemma between personal finance and principles.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 4 |
Environmental Consultant (Denver, Colorado)
Age: 37 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy provides a clear path towards sustainable development in business.
- It's a chance to guide more companies into successful green transitions.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 10 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 10 | 8 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $100000000 (Low: $75000000, High: $150000000)
Year 2: $105000000 (Low: $78750000, High: $157500000)
Year 3: $110250000 (Low: $82687500, High: $165375000)
Year 5: $115762500 (Low: $86721875, High: $173643750)
Year 10: $127628901 (Low: $95571676, High: $191443352)
Year 100: $295619154 (Low: $221714366, High: $443428731)
Key Considerations
- Coordination with international markets who may not impose similar restrictions could affect competitive positioning of U.S. financial institutions.
- Potential legal challenges from financial institutions and fossil fuel companies could incur additional costs.
- Tracking the shift in investments toward renewable sectors is crucial to measure long-term sustainability benefits and economic advantages.