Policy Impact Analysis - 117/S/5253

Bill Overview

Title: Hong Kong Economic and Trade Office (HKETO) Certification Act

Description: This bill requires the President to periodically determine whether to allow the Hong Kong Economic and Trade Offices (HKETOs) to continue to operate in the United States. (The HKETOs are the official representative offices for Hong Kong, a semi-autonomous city that was established as a British colony in 1841. The United Kingdom transferred sovereignty over Hong Kong to China in 1997). Under this bill, the President must periodically (at least once a year) certify to Congress a determination as to whether the HKETOs should be covered by the International Organizations Immunities Act. (The act provides immunities and privileges to certain international organizations, such as immunity from certain lawsuits and exemption from property taxes.) If the President certifies that the HKETOs no longer merit receiving such privileges and immunities, the HKETOs must terminate operations in the United States no later than 180 days after the certification is delivered to Congress. If the President certifies that the HKETOs continue to merit such privileges and immunities, the HKETOs may continue operations for another year, unless Congress enacts a joint resolution disapproving of the certification. The President may also revoke the application of such privileges and immunities to the HKETOs. A federal government entity may enter into an agreement or partnership with an HKETO only if the HKETOs are still authorized to operate in the United States under this bill.

Sponsors: Sen. Rubio, Marco [R-FL]

Target Audience

Population: People affected by changes in the operation of the Hong Kong Economic and Trade Offices

Estimated Size: 2000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

International Trade Consultant (San Francisco, CA)

Age: 45 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The uncertain status of HKETOs worries me as it directly affects the advice I give to clients about Hong Kong's market accessibility.
  • I fear that a reduced presence could signal instability, impacting my business and undermining client confidence.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 5 7
Year 3 5 7
Year 5 6 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 8 8

Financial Analyst (New York, NY)

Age: 31 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The HKETO's operational status doesn't immediately threaten my job, but any long-term impact on trade integrity could influence financial stability in the markets.
  • I see this as a potentially destabilizing event for Hong Kong-U.S. economic partnerships, but the direct impact on my personal life is minimal.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 8
Year 2 6 8
Year 3 7 8
Year 5 7 8
Year 10 8 8
Year 20 8 9

University Professor (Los Angeles, CA)

Age: 52 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Academic freedom and exchange with Hong Kong scholars are crucial for my work.
  • I worry that limiting the HKETOs could hinder research collaboration and cultural understanding.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 8 8

Software Engineer (Austin, TX)

Age: 29 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 2.0 years

Commonness: 15/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The HKETO situation is a minor concern in my job, mainly because it might affect client operations in Hong Kong indirectly.
  • I'm more worried about the larger implications on international tech partnerships.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 8
Year 3 7 8
Year 5 8 8
Year 10 8 9
Year 20 9 9

Foreign Service Officer (Washington, D.C.)

Age: 38 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I see this as part of a larger diplomatic strategy, and while it complicates day-to-day work, it doesn't affect my personal wellbeing much.
  • The logistics of my role might change slightly, but my career is not dependent on the HKETOs.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 8
Year 2 6 8
Year 3 7 8
Year 5 8 8
Year 10 8 8
Year 20 9 9

Graduate Student (Chicago, IL)

Age: 26 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 2.0 years

Commonness: 12/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Essentially, this provides an interesting case study for my research but doesn't harm my current wellbeing.
  • I'd be concerned if this limits access to internships or job opportunities with international focuses.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 8 8
Year 20 9 9

Tech Entrepreneur (Seattle, WA)

Age: 34 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 9

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The operational status of HKETOs could directly affect my startup's expansion plans and investor relations.
  • Lowering trade impediments is critical to our growth strategy in Asia.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 9
Year 2 7 9
Year 3 7 9
Year 5 8 9
Year 10 9 10
Year 20 9 10

Retired Businesswoman (Boston, MA)

Age: 60 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • While I'm retired, I mentor many who could be impacted by these changes in trade conditions.
  • It's concerning to think about the barriers this could create for young companies.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 7 8
Year 5 7 8
Year 10 8 8
Year 20 9 9

Oil and Gas Executive (Houston, TX)

Age: 42 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 9

Duration of Impact: 7.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Our sector relies on stable international trade conditions; any disruptive change in HKETOs' status could affect market forecasts.
  • It impacts strategic decisions, but I'm prepared for short-term disruptions with long-term benefits if resolved properly.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 9
Year 2 8 9
Year 3 8 9
Year 5 8 9
Year 10 9 10
Year 20 9 10

Public Policy Advisor (Phoenix, AZ)

Age: 48 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 20/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Changes in HKETOs' status provide complex challenges in crafting bilateral trade policies.
  • Professionally, it's fascinating, but I remain neutral about the personal impacts.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 8 8
Year 20 8 9

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $1500000 (Low: $1000000, High: $2000000)

Year 2: $1500000 (Low: $1000000, High: $2000000)

Year 3: $1500000 (Low: $1000000, High: $2000000)

Year 5: $1500000 (Low: $1000000, High: $2000000)

Year 10: $1500000 (Low: $1000000, High: $2000000)

Year 100: $1500000 (Low: $1000000, High: $2000000)

Key Considerations