Policy Impact Analysis - 117/S/5234

Bill Overview

Title: PANIC Act of 2022

Description: This bill expands the definition of major illicit drug producing country to include a country that is a significant direct source of certain drugs (or precursor chemicals for producing such drugs) that are significantly affecting the United States. The bill also expands the definition of major drug-transit country to include countries through which certain synthetic drugs are transported. (Under current law, a country designated a major illicit drug producing country or major drug-transit country may be eligible for certain U.S. foreign assistance, including transfers of excess defense articles. However, a designated country that fails to adhere to commitments related to drug control measures may be barred from receiving other forms of foreign assistance and may also be subject to trade restrictions.)

Sponsors: Sen. Cornyn, John [R-TX]

Target Audience

Population: Individuals in countries classified as major illicit drug producing or transit countries

Estimated Size: 20000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Nurse (Detroit, MI)

Age: 34 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I've seen many patients suffer from addiction. Reducing drug availability is crucial, but we also need more support on the ground.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 8 6
Year 20 8 5

Unemployed (West Virginia)

Age: 45 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 3

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • My town has been hit hard by opioids. Anything to stop these drugs is welcomed, though jobs and health programs are also needed.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 3 3
Year 2 4 3
Year 3 4 3
Year 5 5 3
Year 10 5 2
Year 20 5 2

Tech worker (San Francisco, CA)

Age: 28 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This doesn't really affect me. I live a comfortable life away from these issues.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 8 8
Year 5 8 8
Year 10 8 8
Year 20 8 8

College student (New York, NY)

Age: 22 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Losing family to drugs was devastating. I hope this policy helps prevent others from experiencing the same.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 6 5
Year 5 7 5
Year 10 7 5
Year 20 7 5

Social Worker (Portland, OR)

Age: 39 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • My clients face huge challenges. The policy might help, but they need more direct support.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 6 5
Year 5 6 5
Year 10 6 5
Year 20 6 5

Law Enforcement Officer (Miami, FL)

Age: 29 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 7.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I've seen direct benefits from similar policies in the past. However, enforcement alone isn't enough.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 8 6
Year 20 8 6

Farmer (Rural Kansas)

Age: 58 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 12/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • We don't notice much drug activity here. This doesn't seem to impact us directly.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 7 7

Teacher (Chicago, IL)

Age: 31 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 4.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Students face many challenges with drugs at home. A reduction in drug flow would be a blessing.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 6 5
Year 5 7 5
Year 10 7 5
Year 20 7 5

Small Business Owner (Boston, MA)

Age: 50 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Drugs affect my employees and business indirectly. Improvements here would be positive, though I'm skeptical about enforcement alone.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 7 6

College Student (Los Angeles, CA)

Age: 19 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 2.0 years

Commonness: 9/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I've seen drugs around campus. Reducing their availability could mean fewer distractions for my peers.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 7 6

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $25000000 (Low: $20000000, High: $30000000)

Year 2: $25500000 (Low: $20500000, High: $30500000)

Year 3: $26000000 (Low: $21000000, High: $31000000)

Year 5: $27000000 (Low: $22000000, High: $32000000)

Year 10: $30000000 (Low: $25000000, High: $35000000)

Year 100: $40000000 (Low: $35000000, High: $45000000)

Key Considerations