Bill Overview
Title: Stop Russian GOLD Act of 2022
Description: This bill directs the President to impose property-blocking sanctions on foreign individuals or entities that knowingly participate in a significant transaction for the sale, supply, or transfer of gold to or from Russia or the Russian government. The President may also impose visa-blocking sanctions on the foreign individuals subject to these property-blocking sanctions.
Sponsors: Sen. Cornyn, John [R-TX]
Target Audience
Population: Individuals involved in significant gold transactions with Russia
Estimated Size: 50000
- The bill focuses on imposing sanctions related to the sale, supply, or transfer of gold involving Russia.
- The sanctions are directed at foreign individuals or entities, which implies non-Russian and non-U.S. persons could be targeted primarily.
- Russian entities involved in gold transactions would be directly affected.
- Potential economic impact on Russia due to restrictions on gold transactions.
- Global markets could experience changes due to altered gold trade dynamics.
- Countries or regions with strong gold trading partnerships or activities with Russia may see significant impacts.
Reasoning
- The target population is primarily foreign entities and individuals involved in gold transactions with Russia, with a small segment of U.S. citizens involved in such financial activities.
- Given the bill's financial budget, the significant effect will focus on these stakeholders and indirectly on markets involving gold.
- People in finance and investment sectors are indirectly affected through market changes in gold prices and availability.
- A sizable portion of the U.S. population will not directly notice any change due to this bill as it targets international interactions rather than domestic policies.
- A few investment-related industries might experience minimal to moderate financial turbulence, affecting Cantril scores moderately.
- Given the sanctioned transactions of gold, there might be minor ripples in global economic markets which can affect broader investments, subsequently impacting personal well-being.
Simulated Interviews
Investment Banker (New York, NY)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I believe this policy might lead to increased gold price volatility in the short term.
- It could complicate international transactions for gold-related investments.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Gold Retail Business Owner (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 37 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 15/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I do not foresee a personal impact since I do not engage in international gold trade directly with Russia.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Commodities Analyst (Chicago, IL)
Age: 29 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The sanctions could result in an increased demand for alternative supply, affecting analysis and market prediction tasks.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 6 |
Oil and Gas Executive (Houston, TX)
Age: 55 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Indirectly, the policy could influence investment strategies through oil correlated to gold prices.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Tech Entrepreneur (Seattle, WA)
Age: 42 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 9
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 14/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy doesn't affect me directly, but market fluctuations in gold might hint at opportunities.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
International Trade Specialist (Miami, FL)
Age: 34 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 7.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Heightened scrutiny without significant penalties could disturb some trade channels unintentionally.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Economics Professor (Boston, MA)
Age: 40 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This presents a fascinating case for studies on international trade and geopolitical economics.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Software Developer (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 26 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 18/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Fluctuations in global markets due to gold restrictions may cause ripples in broader financial instruments.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Retired Financial Analyst (Atlanta, GA)
Age: 60 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Policy might be an important consideration for strategic investment advice regarding precious metals.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Environmental Policy Advisor (Denver, CO)
Age: 50 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 13/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy holds potential for even-handed dialogue on mining ethics as it avoids targeting ecological initiatives.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $50000000 (Low: $30000000, High: $70000000)
Year 2: $40000000 (Low: $25000000, High: $60000000)
Year 3: $40000000 (Low: $25000000, High: $60000000)
Year 5: $35000000 (Low: $20000000, High: $50000000)
Year 10: $30000000 (Low: $15000000, High: $45000000)
Year 100: $20000000 (Low: $10000000, High: $30000000)
Key Considerations
- The sanctions focus on gold transactions, which is a niche yet significant market segment.
- Key enforcement challenges include identifying and tracking transactions involving sanctioned individuals.
- Expected indirect economic impacts on allied countries that trade in gold with Russia.
- Potential responses from Russia and geopolitical impacts need to be closely monitored.