Bill Overview
Title: Ending China's Developing Nation Status Act
Description: This bill requires the Department of State to take actions to stop China from being classified as a developing nation by international organizations. (Generally, international organizations provide developing nations certain rights and beneficial treatment. For example, the World Trade Organization provides developing nations with so-called special and differential treatment , which includes measures that aim to increase trading opportunities for those nations.) Under this bill, the State Department must advocate for international organizations to (1) change China's status from developing nation to developed nation, or (2) develop a mechanism to change China's status to developed nation if no mechanism currently exists. The President may waive this requirement if doing so is in the national interest of the United States.
Sponsors: Sen. Romney, Mitt [R-UT]
Target Audience
Population: Individuals living in China whose wellbeing may be affected by changes in economic benefits and international trade status due to China's reclassification from a developing to a developed nation.
Estimated Size: 300000000
- China is currently classified as a developing nation in various international organizations, which allows it to receive trade benefits and financial assistance designed for such nations.
- Reclassifying China as a developed nation would remove these benefits and could impact China's economy, thereby affecting the well-being of its citizens.
- The Chinese population is approximately 1.4 billion people, and many are reliant on the economic benefits derived from its current international status.
- Small businesses and industries in China that benefit from international trade advantages could face increased competition and reduced economic support.
- Global markets connected to China's economy would also experience changes impacting investors, businesses, and workers in other countries.
Reasoning
- The policy's main impact will be indirect on American businesses and consumers through changes in China-US trade dynamics.
- Certain industries in the US that compete directly with Chinese industries may benefit if competition lessens due to reduced special treatments for China.
- Consumers relying on cheap imports from China might experience negative effects if costs rise.
- The policy costs can be managed within the specified budget constraints as it mainly involves advocating through diplomatic channels rather than direct domestic expenditures.
Simulated Interviews
Tech Entrepreneur (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 35 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The change might increase costs for me if production prices rise in China.
- It could push me to look for production alternatives in other countries.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 7 |
Investment Analyst (New York, NY)
Age: 28 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This could present an opportunity if China's market shifts due to reduced benefits.
- There's a chance for both risk and reward depending on market adaptability.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 8 |
Factory Worker (Rust Belt)
Age: 52 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Domestic production might see more demand if imports become less competitive.
- This policy could lead to more job security for me.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 5 |
Consumer (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 40 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 9
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Rising costs of goods could negatively impact my purchasing power.
- I am worried about inflation.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 9 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Graduate Student (Chicago, IL)
Age: 23 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This provides an interesting case study for my research on international trade policies.
- It could open up new learning opportunities regarding global economic shifts.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Retired Financial Advisor (Dallas, TX)
Age: 60 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I am intrigued to see how this policy shift influences diplomatic relations.
- It could either open or close doors for future collaborations and dialogue.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 7 |
Small Business Owner (Seattle, WA)
Age: 45 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 4.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I worry that my costs will rise, impacting my business profitability.
- I might need to find new suppliers in markets outside of China.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Supply Chain Manager (Miami, FL)
Age: 38 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Supply chain dynamics could be complicated by this shift.
- We'll need to strategize to mitigate any risks involved with changing China's status.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Software Engineer (Austin, TX)
Age: 29 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 9
Duration of Impact: 1.0 years
Commonness: 15/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I don't expect this to impact me directly, but it may indirectly influence tech markets.
- I'm observant of how macroeconomic shifts influence the tech industry.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Policy Analyst (Boston, MA)
Age: 55 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy proposal aligns with shifts I've been tracking in international trade.
- China's reclassification can serve as a significant case study for policy analysis.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $50000000 (Low: $30000000, High: $70000000)
Year 2: $25000000 (Low: $15000000, High: $35000000)
Year 3: $10000000 (Low: $5000000, High: $15000000)
Year 5: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 10: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 100: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Key Considerations
- This policy may provoke diplomatic tensions with China and could lead to retaliatory economic measures.
- The effectiveness of the policy is highly dependent on the response of international bodies and other nations.
- The potential long-term impact on global trade structures and alliances should be considered.