Bill Overview
Title: Strengthening the AfCFTA Act of 2022
Description: This bill requires the President to direct the U.S. Trade Representative to develop a 10-year federal strategy to promote the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). Additionally, the U.S. Agency for International Development must establish an AfCFTA Trade Capacity Building Program to support the implementation of the strategy.
Sponsors: Sen. Van Hollen, Chris [D-MD]
Target Audience
Population: People in African Union countries covered by the AfCFTA
Estimated Size: 2000000
- The AfCFTA covers 54 of the 55 African Union (AU) countries, representing over 1.2 billion people.
- The AfCFTA aims to create a single continental market for goods and services, potentially boosting trade and economic growth across member states.
- By promoting the AfCFTA, the bill aims to improve the economic conditions and development in African countries, potentially impacting all residents through job creation, improved market access, and economic stability.
- A significant part of the strategy involves capacity building, which means directly impacting individuals involved in trade, industry, and governance in African nations.
- The bill indirectly affects Africans engaged in trade and related sectors through expected economic growth, estimated to contribute to lifting several people out of poverty.
- The trade capacity building could improve the skills and opportunities of those working in trade-related sectors in Africa.
Reasoning
- The policy primarily influences individuals linked to trade or economic development sectors connected with Africa.
- In the U.S., people who are part of the wider trade or export industries might see indirect benefits from newer markets or partnerships being established.
- Direct and significant impacts of this policy are more likely to be seen by businesses rather than individual citizens, but some individuals in specialized sectors may experience changes in their professional capacities or opportunities.
- For the general U.S. population, changes in wellbeing are likely negligible or slow to be realized, mostly relevant to people directly working with impacted organizations or industries.
- Considering budget limits, the policy's significant and noticeable impact will likely be restricted to a relatively small professional circle within the first few years.
Simulated Interviews
International Trade Specialist (New York, NY)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The AfCFTA Act could significantly facilitate my work.
- Increased market access in Africa could make the U.S. more competitive globally.
- The policy needs to ensure significant maritime and logistic support to truly be effective.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 8 |
Tech Entrepreneur (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 34 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This bill opens avenues for tech partnerships and expansions.
- It could improve infrastructure to support tech advancement in Africa.
- Would appreciate clarity on tech-focused trade facilities in the strategy.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 8 |
Brand Manager at a Beverage Company (Miami, FL)
Age: 28 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- More open trade policies would stimulate new markets, which can be good.
- The policy has indirect benefits for my work through broader exposure.
- Stable political climates are necessary to realise full benefits of such policies.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 8 |
Professor of Economic Development (Chicago, IL)
Age: 50 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Academically, it's an exciting development with broad consequences.
- Implementation details will dictate its success.
- Eagerly observing how it influences U.S.-Africa economic relations.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 8 |
International Affairs Consultant (Houston, TX)
Age: 40 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The AfCFTA Act is a step towards stronger geopolitical ties.
- It presents opportunities for growth in consultancy work.
- Projects like these need long-term financial commitment from the U.S.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 8 |
Logistics Coordinator (Denver, CO)
Age: 38 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I anticipate logistical improvements might result through this act.
- Our work could become more efficient with better trade alignments.
- Practical challenges remain that need governmental attention.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Small Business Owner (Memphis, TN)
Age: 56 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- If it leads to cost reduction in import tariffs, it can benefit my business.
- There's potential for expanding product lines sourced from Africa.
- Important policy but needs local support for small businesses to utilize it.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Economist (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 60 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 15.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This bill may mark an important shift in U.S. trade philosophy.
- It's a reminder that Africa is increasingly on the global economic stage.
- Success pivots on political stability across member states.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 8 |
Startup Investor (Atlanta, GA)
Age: 29 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy could generate promising investment avenues in Africa.
- It could provide better legal frameworks for startup engagements.
- I'm optimistic about fostering global entrepreneurial exchanges.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 8 |
Supply Chain Analyst (Seattle, WA)
Age: 36 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 7.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Improved trade routes can enhance supply chain efficiency.
- Policy should address infrastructure deficits in African trade.
- Collaboration with local partners is essential for realistic implementation.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 8 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $50000000 (Low: $40000000, High: $60000000)
Year 2: $51000000 (Low: $41000000, High: $61000000)
Year 3: $52020000 (Low: $42020000, High: $62020000)
Year 5: $54100000 (Low: $44100000, High: $64100000)
Year 10: $59374200 (Low: $49374200, High: $69374200)
Year 100: $200000000 (Low: $150000000, High: $250000000)
Key Considerations
- The uncertainty in international relations and trade agreements can significantly influence the efficacy and cost of implementing the strategy.
- The actual trade volumes and patterns may take years to stabilize and reach anticipated benefits, affecting long-term savings estimates.
- The ability to align U.S. and African Union goals may impact the successful promotion of the AfCFTA.