Policy Impact Analysis - 117/S/5151

Bill Overview

Title: End Hedge Fund Control of American Homes Act

Description: This bill imposes an excise tax, with certain exclusions, on individuals who own more than 100 single family homes. The amount of such tax is the product of $20,000 and the number of homes owned over 100. The bill establishes a Housing Trust Fund into which the excise tax amounts shall be deposited and used to provide grants for down payment assistance.

Sponsors: Sen. Merkley, Jeff [D-OR]

Target Audience

Population: People living in countries where housing markets are significantly influenced by large institutional homeownership

Estimated Size: 3000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Real estate agent (New York, NY)

Age: 42 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I've seen hedge funds affecting the market significantly, pushing prices up. This bill might help stabilize the market.
  • The grants for homebuyers will be helpful for my clients struggling with down payments.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 8 6
Year 10 8 6
Year 20 8 6

Software engineer (Los Angeles, CA)

Age: 28 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 12/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • If this decreases competition from hedge funds, I might have a better chance of buying a home.
  • Grants could help too, given the high prices in LA.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 7
Year 2 9 7
Year 3 9 7
Year 5 9 7
Year 10 9 7
Year 20 9 7

Retired teacher (Houston, TX)

Age: 58 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 2.0 years

Commonness: 15/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This won't affect me much directly. I don't own investment properties.
  • I hope it stabilizes the market a bit for young people.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 5 5
Year 3 5 5
Year 5 5 5
Year 10 5 5
Year 20 5 5

Nurse (San Francisco, CA)

Age: 34 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The competition from large investors is tough in San Francisco.
  • I'm optimistic about the grants but unsure how many people they can really help given the city's prices.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 8 6
Year 3 8 6
Year 5 8 6
Year 10 8 6
Year 20 8 6

Hedge fund manager (Portland, OR)

Age: 50 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 9

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This will have financial implications for my firm; we need to reassess our property investments.
  • The housing market dynamics could change if we scale back our portfolio.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 9
Year 2 8 9
Year 3 8 9
Year 5 8 9
Year 10 8 9
Year 20 8 9

Public school teacher (Chicago, IL)

Age: 45 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 4

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 9/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Healthy skepticism—a lot depends on fund distribution and market response.
  • Could be positive for my kids' future in affording a home.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 4
Year 2 5 4
Year 3 6 4
Year 5 6 4
Year 10 6 4
Year 20 6 4

Stay-at-home dad (Charlotte, NC)

Age: 38 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 14/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Corporations owning neighborhoods isn't ideal, so maybe this can help reduce that.
  • Our family's housing stability feels unaffected by this bill directly though.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 5 5
Year 3 5 5
Year 5 5 5
Year 10 5 5
Year 20 5 5

Real estate investor (Miami, FL)

Age: 43 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 1.0 years

Commonness: 11/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • My business strategy focuses more on mid-sized investments.
  • This policy likely won't affect me unless expansion plans increase property numbers significantly.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 8 8
Year 5 8 8
Year 10 8 8
Year 20 8 8

Barista (Phoenix, AZ)

Age: 29 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 7.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Phoenix is getting tougher to afford, so any drop in investor buys could be good.
  • Down payment grants sound nice, but I'll have to see what it realistically means for me.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 8 6
Year 5 8 6
Year 10 8 6
Year 20 8 6

University professor (Boston, MA)

Age: 61 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 2.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • My retirement plan includes selling my home at a decent price, so I hope this policy doesn't suppress the market.
  • Balancing benefits for new buyers and current owners is tricky.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 6 7

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $50000000 (Low: $40000000, High: $60000000)

Year 2: $50000000 (Low: $40000000, High: $60000000)

Year 3: $50000000 (Low: $40000000, High: $60000000)

Year 5: $50000000 (Low: $40000000, High: $60000000)

Year 10: $60000000 (Low: $50000000, High: $70000000)

Year 100: $70000000 (Low: $60000000, High: $80000000)

Key Considerations