Policy Impact Analysis - 117/S/5128

Bill Overview

Title: Fertilizer SUSTAIN Act

Description: Fertilizer SUSTAIN Act This bill (1) directs the Department of the Interior to designate potash and phosphates as critical minerals, (2) revises the Federal Register and National Environmental Policy Act permitting process for mining and phosphate and potash exploration, and (3) requires the Environmental Protection Agency to allow phosphogypsum to be used in government road projects.

Sponsors: Sen. Marshall, Roger [R-KS]

Target Audience

Population: People depending on phosphate and potash mining and related industries

Estimated Size: 332000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

corn farmer (Nebraska)

Age: 45 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The availability and cost of potash and phosphate significantly impact my farming operations.
  • I'm concerned about any potential increase in fertilizer costs.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 6
Year 2 8 6
Year 3 8 5
Year 5 8 5
Year 10 9 5
Year 20 9 4

Phosphate miner (Florida)

Age: 32 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm hopeful this policy might increase job security at the mine.
  • However, I'm worried about the long-term environmental effects.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 5
Year 2 7 5
Year 3 7 4
Year 5 7 4
Year 10 8 3
Year 20 7 3

environmentalist (California)

Age: 28 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Increased mining could have detrimental effects on the environment.
  • This policy might undermine our conservation efforts.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 4 5
Year 2 4 6
Year 3 5 6
Year 5 4 6
Year 10 4 7
Year 20 3 7

retired (Texas)

Age: 61 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Changes in road construction materials aren't a huge concern for me personally.
  • I think younger workers might find opportunities with the new policy.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 6 5
Year 5 6 5
Year 10 6 5
Year 20 5 5

agricultural supply chain manager (Iowa)

Age: 39 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Easing the mining process could stabilize supply lines and prices.
  • This might make my job easier in some respects.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 8 6
Year 5 8 5
Year 10 8 5
Year 20 7 5

government road project manager (Michigan)

Age: 50 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Using phosphogypsum could reduce costs in road building.
  • I'm cautiously optimistic about the policy's benefit to projects.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 8 6
Year 5 8 6
Year 10 8 6
Year 20 7 6

college student and part-time environmental activist (New York)

Age: 25 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Worried about the disregard for environmental assessments.
  • Policy seems more focused on economic gains than sustainability.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 4 5
Year 2 4 6
Year 3 4 6
Year 5 3 6
Year 10 3 6
Year 20 3 7

Grocery store owner (Ohio)

Age: 55 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • If this policy helps stabilize fertilizer costs, food prices might be less volatile.
  • I'm hoping for steady prices to help predict inventory costs.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 6 5
Year 5 6 5
Year 10 7 5
Year 20 6 5

policy analyst (Washington)

Age: 42 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The expedited permitting process could bypass necessary environmental safeguards.
  • I expect increased lobbying efforts by affected industries.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 4 5
Year 2 4 6
Year 3 5 6
Year 5 5 6
Year 10 5 6
Year 20 5 6

long-haul truck driver (Arkansas)

Age: 37 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • More consistent operations at mines might stabilize my workload.
  • I'm hopeful this will mean less downtime waiting for loads.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 8 6
Year 5 9 5
Year 10 9 5
Year 20 8 5

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $750000000 (Low: $500000000, High: $1000000000)

Year 2: $750000000 (Low: $500000000, High: $1000000000)

Year 3: $750000000 (Low: $500000000, High: $1000000000)

Year 5: $800000000 (Low: $550000000, High: $1050000000)

Year 10: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)

Year 100: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)

Key Considerations