Bill Overview
Title: CCP Visa Ban Act of 2022
Description: This bill prohibits the Department of State from issuing certain visas to members of the Chinese Communist Party. Specifically, the bill prohibits the issuance of temporary visas for business (B-1 visas) or tourism (B-2 visas) to party members. Further, U.S. Customs and Border Protection and the Bureau of Consular Affairs must cancel any such unexpired visas that have been issued to party members.
Sponsors: Sen. Rubio, Marco [R-FL]
Target Audience
Population: Members of the Chinese Communist Party seeking temporary U.S. business or tourism visas
Estimated Size: 200000
- The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is estimated to have around 90 million members globally.
- The bill specifically targets the denial and cancellation of B-1 and B-2 visas for these members.
- These visas typically include temporary business and tourism activities.
- Business and tourism exchanges between the U.S. and China may be negatively affected.
Reasoning
- The policy is highly specific, targeting mainly the Chinese Communist Party members who wish to visit the U.S. temporarily for business or tourism. The direct impact on the U.S. population might be limited since CCP members represent a small subset of the potential visitors and an even smaller subset of the American populace are CCP members.
- Business communities that rely heavily on interactions with China, particularly in tourism and some business sectors, may perceive the policy as having a medium to high impact, due to reduced opportunities for partnerships and revenue from Chinese tourists.
- Cultural and educational exchanges might witness some disruption, though given the policy aspect related to temporary visas, students and longer-term visitors might not be affected.
- Overall economic impact might be minor in a large-scale national context but could be locally significant in areas heavily dependent on Chinese tourism.
Simulated Interviews
Tourism agency manager (New York City, NY)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy could negatively affect my business as we have a significant number of Chinese clients who are party members.
- It's concerning because it limits my ability to grow my business through these high-spending tourists.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 4 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 4 | 6 |
Tech entrepreneur (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 37 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I feel this policy is short-sighted and could strain relationships with my Chinese partners.
- Business isn't just about politics; it's about connections and this interrupts that.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 8 |
Import/export business owner (Houston, TX)
Age: 54 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The inability for some of my business partners to travel will complicate negotiations.
- It might not halt operations entirely but could hinder our progress.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 7 |
Cultural exchange program coordinator (Seattle, WA)
Age: 29 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 9
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Since my program focuses on students, the impact should be minimal, but the sentiment of openness is compromised.
- It's unfortunate as it sends mixed signals about cultural exchanges.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Retired farmer (Rural Iowa)
Age: 65 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I doubt this will have any impact on me; I've never really dealt with Chinese visitors here.
- I can see why some businesses might be upset, but my life is unchanged.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
University professor (Boston, MA)
Age: 50 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- It adds an administrative layer and might deter some valuable scholarly exchanges.
- The policy leans towards political aggression.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 6 |
Film producer (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 39 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm worried about disruptions; partnership requires flexibility in travel.
- It imposes hurdles that might push collaborators to other markets.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 8 |
Journalist (Chicago, IL)
Age: 28 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- It's a significant policy change, but direct impact on people here might be overstated.
- There's potential for increased tensions though.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Casino worker (Las Vegas, NV)
Age: 34 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 7.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Fewer Chinese tourists could mean less income for my workplace, impacting my role indirectly.
- I hope the effect isn't too great; we've benefited from their visits.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 6 |
College student (Miami, FL)
Age: 22 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm worried about limited travel opportunities for insights into CCP governed regions.
- Hope this doesn't affect student exchange pathways.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $15000000 (Low: $10000000, High: $20000000)
Year 2: $15000000 (Low: $10000000, High: $20000000)
Year 3: $15000000 (Low: $10000000, High: $20000000)
Year 5: $15000000 (Low: $10000000, High: $20000000)
Year 10: $15000000 (Low: $10000000, High: $20000000)
Year 100: $15000000 (Low: $10000000, High: $20000000)
Key Considerations
- The policy could lead to diplomatic tensions and potential economic retaliation affecting U.S.-China relations.
- Operational enforcement costs could fluctuate based on the adaptability of digital and administrative systems.
- Economic impacts on tourism-dependent cities could be significant, albeit indirect.