Bill Overview
Title: A bill to provide for a temporary 1-year halt to all proposed direct commercial sales and foreign military sales to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia of weaponry and munitions.
Description: This bill prohibits the issuing of export licenses for the transfer of defense articles to Saudi Arabia under the Arms Export Control Act for one year. This prohibition includes direct munitions containers; weapon support and support equipment; spare and repair parts; U.S. government and contractor engineering, technical and logistical support services; and other related elements of logistical and program support.
Sponsors: Sen. Blumenthal, Richard [D-CT]
Target Audience
Population: People in Saudi Arabia
Estimated Size: 50000
- The bill affects the sale and transfer of defense articles, meaning it impacts arms manufacturers and defense contractors who supply these items.
- Saudi Arabia is a major importer of arms from the US; thus, the halt will have significant implications for their military capabilities in the short term.
- The US defense industry, which exports a considerable volume of defense products to Saudi Arabia, will face economic impacts from the temporary halt.
- There may be broader geopolitical implications, impacting international relations, especially with countries that support or oppose Saudi's military actions.
- The general population of Saudi Arabia may be indirectly affected as it impacts their country's defense capabilities and potentially influences broader regional security dynamics.
Reasoning
- The US defense industry is considerably affected by sales to international markets, including Saudi Arabia. Some communities and workers may experience significant impacts due to this policy, particularly in regions heavily reliant on defense contracts.
- Not all individuals in the US will be directly affected. The broader public may not notice immediate changes to their daily lives unless connected to the defense industry.
- The policy's impact is more localized to certain areas of the economy and specific communities rather than widespread.
- Individuals working outside the defense industry, or those whose companies are diversified across multiple sectors, might not feel any change at all.
- Some citizens who are aware of US foreign relations or have connections to the defense sector might express opinions on the policy's geopolitical implications.
Simulated Interviews
Engineering Manager at a defense contractor (Alabama)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 1.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy will cause us to pause some projects, and that'll likely lead to temporary furloughs for some workers.
- It's frustrating because the government changes rules more quickly than companies can adapt.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 9 |
Operations Analyst for a major defense supplier (Texas)
Age: 34 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 1.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The halt will really slow down our pipeline's operations, affecting bonuses and promotions.
- I'm concerned about the long-term impact on US-Saudi relations.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Defense Contractor Executive (California)
Age: 52 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 1.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This will affect our quarterly earnings, but we have diverse markets to cushion the blow.
- It's manageable, but not ideal.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 10 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 10 |
Political Analyst (New York)
Age: 28 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The halt is a strong statement about US international policy.
- It may encourage other countries to rethink their arms relationships with Saudi Arabia.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Logistics Coordinator (Virginia)
Age: 40 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 1.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I feel anxious because the policy might disrupt my work schedule.
- There's a sense of uncertainty and waiting about future shipments.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Retired (Nebraska)
Age: 60 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 0.5 years
Commonness: 15/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I hold mixed feelings; it's a pause that could make lasting changes, but also an economic hit.
- As a retiree, my direct livelihood isn't affected, but I think of former colleagues.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Nonprofit Worker (Washington)
Age: 31 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm supportive of any reduction in arms sales to conflict zones—it's a positive step.
- This restriction is a small victory towards broader disarmament goals.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
HR Manager in Defense Manufacturing (Maryland)
Age: 50 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 1.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- We're in discussions on how to adjust hiring for the next few months.
- It's a challenge but our diversified projects mean it won't be catastrophic.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 10 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 10 |
Economist (Florida)
Age: 38 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The halt might depress sector gains but the market will correct eventually.
- This policy's impact will inform future tax revenues and policy planning.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 10 | 10 |
Law Student (Illinois)
Age: 27 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm curious whether this sets a precedent for other similar actions.
- It has cumulative educational value as a case study on international law.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 2: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 3: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 5: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 10: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 100: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Key Considerations
- Global geopolitical considerations relating to the halt in arms sales to Saudi Arabia and its ripple effects.
- The direct impact on U.S. arms manufacturers and their supply chains, leading possibly to temporary layoffs.