Bill Overview
Title: Defending Memory Chip Supply Chains from the Chinese Communist Party Act
Description: This bill requires the President to impose sanctions on entities that produce flash memory integrated circuits of at least 128 layers and that have financial links to countries of concern. The bill also requires sanctions on the Yangtze Memory Technologies Corporation.
Sponsors: Sen. Cotton, Tom [R-AR]
Target Audience
Population: People working in and impacted by the high-layer memory integrated circuit industry
Estimated Size: 2000000
- The bill targets companies producing a specific type of memory chips in relation to their connection with countries of concern, hence the direct impact will fall on those companies.
- Indirectly, workers and stakeholders in those companies will also be affected due to potential economic repercussions from sanctions.
- Sanctions can lead to reduced economic activity for affected companies, potentially resulting in job losses or reduced employment opportunities.
- Countries of concern, particularly those heavily involved in the production of such technology, and those with economic ties to these companies, will feel economic aftershocks.
- Global supply chains for electronic components, especially devices relying on high-layer flash memory circuits, could face disruptions due to constrained supply.
- Countries that heavily import these memory chips might experience increased costs or supply shortages, affecting electronics manufacturers downstream.
Reasoning
- The target population for the policy includes American workers in tech and electronics industries due to their reliance on the supply chain of high-layer memory chips.
- There may also be indirect effects on consumers due to potential price increases in technology products as a result of disruptions.
- The policy does not directly target individuals, but rather companies and economic activities, meaning most effects would be indirect and diffuse.
- The budget limits suggest that more significant direct relief or support measures may not be feasible beyond monitoring and potential industry support programs.
Simulated Interviews
Software Engineer (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 35 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 15/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm concerned that the policy might increase prices for components our company relies on.
- I understand the importance of national security, but it could strain our budget and timelines.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Consumer Electronics Retailer (Austin, TX)
Age: 42 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm worried about possible supply shortages affecting my inventory.
- Customers might have to pay higher prices, which could reduce sales.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Market Analyst (New York, NY)
Age: 29 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy could spur increased domestic investment in the semiconductor industry.
- But, interim disruptions are likely and will impact market stability.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Automotive Engineer (Detroit, MI)
Age: 50 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 14/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm apprehensive about electronic component availability.
- Production schedules might get disrupted if chip supply is affected.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Retired (Phoenix, AZ)
Age: 60 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I think the government should prioritize national security over economic concerns.
- Doesn't directly affect my life, but I'm interested in keeping American systems secure.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Freelance Designer (Seattle, WA)
Age: 27 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 18/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm worried this could make tech upgrades more expensive.
- Essentially, this policy might trickle down to freelancers like me in unexpected ways.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Small Manufacturing Business Owner (Chicago, IL)
Age: 38 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 7.0 years
Commonness: 13/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The sanctions might force me to find new suppliers or pay more for components.
- I'm planning on keeping a close watch on our supply chain costs.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Tech Company Executive (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 45 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 4.0 years
Commonness: 11/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Long term, I hope this leads to more localchip production.
- Short term, we're scrambling to adjust our supply chains accordingly.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 10 |
Senior Electronics Technician (Dallas, TX)
Age: 52 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 14/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Production might become more expensive or challenging.
- I doubt that'll mean immediate layoffs, but it's something to think about.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Research Analyst (Boston, MA)
Age: 31 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Possibly increased US government support for domestic semiconductor projects.
- The policy aligns with shifting global semiconductor strategies.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $15000000 (Low: $10000000, High: $20000000)
Year 2: $15000000 (Low: $10000000, High: $20000000)
Year 3: $16000000 (Low: $11000000, High: $21000000)
Year 5: $17000000 (Low: $12000000, High: $22000000)
Year 10: $19000000 (Low: $14000000, High: $24000000)
Year 100: $25000000 (Low: $20000000, High: $30000000)
Key Considerations
- Sanctions targeted primarily at Chinese firms, which might retaliate affecting broader US-China relations.
- Global supply strains could prompt a search for alternative chip suppliers or bolster domestic production pushes.
- American tech firms might face short-term costs and adapt to long-term supply chain diversification.