Policy Impact Analysis - 117/S/5046

Bill Overview

Title: Combating Organized Retail Crime Act of 2022

Description: This bill expands federal enforcement of criminal offenses related to organized retail crime. Organized retail crime typically refers to large-scale retail theft and fraud by organized groups of professional shoplifters, or boosters, who make money by stealing merchandise and reselling it for a fraction of the retail cost. First, with respect to criminal offenses involving the transportation of stolen property across state lines and the sale or receipt of stolen goods, the bill broadens the scope of conduct that qualifies as offenses. Additionally, the bill makes the offenses predicate offenses (i.e., underlying offenses) for prosecutions under the federal money laundering statute and authorizes the criminal forfeiture of any property representing or traceable to the gross proceeds obtained as a result of an offense or a conspiracy to commit an offense. Second, with respect to criminal offenses involving theft from an interstate or foreign shipment, the bill makes an offense an underlying offense for prosecution under the federal money laundering statute and authorizes the criminal forfeiture of any property representing or traceable to the gross proceeds obtained as a result of an offense or a conspiracy to commit an offense. Finally, the bill establishes a center—the Organized Retail Crime Coordination Center—within the Department of Homeland Security to coordinate the federal law enforcement activities related to organized retail crime.

Sponsors: Sen. Grassley, Chuck [R-IA]

Target Audience

Population: People involved or affected by organized retail crime

Estimated Size: 300000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Retail Store Manager (Dallas, TX)

Age: 45 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • As a store manager, I'm hopeful that this policy will reduce theft and allow us to improve customer experience.
  • I think this measure will help us save on security costs long-term, possibly allowing for better wages or product offerings.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 5
Year 5 7 5
Year 10 6 4
Year 20 6 4

Small Business Owner (New York, NY)

Age: 32 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 12/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I support tougher laws against organized crime, but I wonder if this will actually affect my small store.
  • Most theft issues I face aren't organized, so I'm unsure about direct benefits to my business.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 6 5
Year 20 6 5

Law Enforcement Officer (Chicago, IL)

Age: 27 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • With the new resources, we might be more effective in tackling large-scale theft networks.
  • However, increased workload might strain our team without proportional benefits.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 8 6
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 6 6

Regional Retail Director (Los Angeles, CA)

Age: 40 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Organized retail theft has cost us extensively, and this bill could help mitigate that.
  • I believe this could lower our operational costs and enhance security because it tackles the root of the problem.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 5
Year 2 7 5
Year 3 7 5
Year 5 8 5
Year 10 9 5
Year 20 8 5

E-commerce Specialist (Portland, OR)

Age: 22 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 9/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I think the bill's impacts on physical retail theft might indirectly benefit e-commerce by reducing fraudulent returns and exchanges.
  • Our platform's focus on security may be bolstered by decreased organized crime activities.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 8 8
Year 5 8 8
Year 10 8 7
Year 20 7 7

Retired Law Enforcement (Atlanta, GA)

Age: 55 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 2.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Retired now, but I see this bill as a positive step towards supporting retail and tackling organized crime.
  • I hope it translates into real benefits for retailers rather than just additional paperwork.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 6 6
Year 20 6 6

Consumer (Miami, FL)

Age: 30 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 15/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I've seen the effects of theft on product availability and prices.
  • If the policy succeeds, I hope to see more availability and better prices.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 7 6

Retail Loss Prevention Officer (Seattle, WA)

Age: 29 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 11/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This bill should help us catch and deter organized groups which are difficult to manage with current resources.
  • However, we’ll need to see how quickly federal assistance will impact local efforts.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 5
Year 2 7 5
Year 3 7 5
Year 5 8 5
Year 10 8 5
Year 20 7 5

Retail Analyst (Denver, CO)

Age: 50 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • If the bill diminishes organized theft, market conditions could improve, enhancing retail stability.
  • Predicting impact will vary by region and the effectiveness of law enforcement involvement.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 7 6

Economist (Houston, TX)

Age: 60 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The economic implications of combating organized retail crime could yield extensive benefits if implemented effectively.
  • While the approach is sound theoretically, the actual execution will be crucial in determining long-term economic improvements.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 9 8
Year 5 9 8
Year 10 9 8
Year 20 9 8

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $150000000 (Low: $100000000, High: $200000000)

Year 2: $160000000 (Low: $110000000, High: $220000000)

Year 3: $170000000 (Low: $120000000, High: $230000000)

Year 5: $190000000 (Low: $140000000, High: $260000000)

Year 10: $220000000 (Low: $170000000, High: $300000000)

Year 100: $500000000 (Low: $250000000, High: $750000000)

Key Considerations