Policy Impact Analysis - 117/S/5030

Bill Overview

Title: Digital Trading Clarity Act of 2022

Description: This bill establishes a safe harbor from securities regulation for certain digital asset exchanges and intermediaries. This safe harbor applies if (1) such digital asset is not classified as a security by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) or by a U.S. court; and (2) the exchange or intermediary complies with requirements regarding listings, customer protection, and disclosures. If a digital asset is determined to be a security and otherwise meets these requirements, the exchange or intermediary has a two year period during which the SEC may not pursue specified enforcement activity against the exchange or intermediary.

Sponsors: Sen. Hagerty, Bill [R-TN]

Target Audience

Population: People involved in digital asset exchange transactions globally

Estimated Size: 50000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Cryptocurrency Trader (New York, NY)

Age: 34 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 12/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy will give me more confidence to trade diverse assets.
  • It's crucial for the growth of crypto exchanges in the U.S.
  • However, the two-year safe harbor might be too short to stabilize the environment.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 7
Year 2 8 6
Year 3 9 5
Year 5 9 5
Year 10 8 5
Year 20 7 4

Software Developer (San Francisco, CA)

Age: 29 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 15/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I believe this will drive innovation in the industry.
  • Our company can now focus more on development than regulatory uncertainties.
  • It should encourage more talent to enter the field.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 5
Year 5 6 4
Year 10 6 3
Year 20 5 3

Financial Advisor (Miami, FL)

Age: 45 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 18/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm skeptical about digital assets and don't think this policy addresses all risks.
  • Clarity is good, but more regulations are needed for investor protection.
  • Clients might feel more secure, though.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 5 4
Year 3 6 4
Year 5 5 4
Year 10 4 3
Year 20 4 3

IT Project Manager in Finance (Denver, CO)

Age: 50 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 7.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The policy might push banks to innovate faster.
  • I'm concerned about potential missed opportunities if my bank doesn't adapt.
  • Generally cautious optimism about increased investments.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 5
Year 5 7 5
Year 10 6 4
Year 20 5 4

Freelance Graphic Designer (Austin, TX)

Age: 31 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 14/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm hopeful this policy will reduce transaction fees indirectly.
  • Digital art relies on crypto ease of transaction.
  • Not sure how it'll impact prices of digital assets.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 8 8
Year 5 7 8
Year 10 6 7
Year 20 5 6

Regulatory Consultant (Chicago, IL)

Age: 56 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This adds complexity in understanding compliance for exchanges I work with.
  • A mixed bag; clarity is good, but it's narrow in scope.
  • Clients are relieved, but wary.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 5
Year 2 6 4
Year 3 5 4
Year 5 5 3
Year 10 4 3
Year 20 4 3

Retail Investor (Seattle, WA)

Age: 47 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 4

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 11/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This bill gives me more confidence to explore crypto further.
  • I hope it leads to better and varied investment options.
  • Not fully confident yet due to market volatility.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 4
Year 2 6 4
Year 3 6 3
Year 5 7 3
Year 10 6 2
Year 20 5 2

Real Estate Investor (Dallas, TX)

Age: 62 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 13/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Hoping this increases my crypto portfolio value.
  • Regulation needs to be balanced to not stifle innovation.
  • I'm cautiously optimistic.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 5 5
Year 3 5 4
Year 5 5 4
Year 10 4 3
Year 20 4 3

Economics Professor (Boston, MA)

Age: 40 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 2.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • A step towards necessary digital regulation framework.
  • This will serve as a case study for future policies.
  • Not inclusive of all stakeholder concerns.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 6 5
Year 5 6 5
Year 10 5 5
Year 20 5 5

College Student (Portland, OR)

Age: 22 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 4.0 years

Commonness: 17/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Expecting more internships or jobs in the crypto space.
  • Peers are excited about potential startup opportunities.
  • Uncertain about long-term implications on traditional finance.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 5
Year 5 6 5
Year 10 6 4
Year 20 5 4

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $5000000 (Low: $3000000, High: $8000000)

Year 2: $3000000 (Low: $2000000, High: $5000000)

Year 3: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)

Year 5: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)

Year 10: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)

Year 100: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)

Key Considerations