Policy Impact Analysis - 117/S/5000

Bill Overview

Title: No ESG at TSP Act

Description: This bill prohibits investments under the Thrift Savings Plan in mutual funds that are based on environmental criteria (e.g., emissions standards), social criteria (e.g., company diversity), political criteria (e.g., political affiliations), or corporate governance criteria that differ from the standards that currently apply under law.

Sponsors: Sen. Lee, Mike [R-UT]

Target Audience

Population: Participants of the Thrift Savings Plan

Estimated Size: 8000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Federal employee (Washington D.C.)

Age: 50 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm concerned about the lack of flexibility now in my TSP to choose investments that align with my values.
  • The ESG-focused funds were performing well and aligned with my personal commitment to sustainability.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 6 7
Year 3 5 7
Year 5 5 8
Year 10 4 8
Year 20 3 9

Military personnel (California)

Age: 35 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I focus on returns rather than the type of investments within TSP. This policy doesn’t change much for me.
  • I believe it's best to stay financially pragmatic and flexible.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 7 7

Federal employee (Texas)

Age: 60 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • For me, security and stable returns are more important than ESG principles.
  • I don't follow ESG trends closely, so this policy isn’t a major issue for my TSP. It’s the returns that matter.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 8 8
Year 5 8 8
Year 10 8 8
Year 20 7 7

Federal employee (New York)

Age: 45 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I like to have the option to invest in sustainable companies. This feels like a step backwards.
  • I'll have to reevaluate some of my portfolio allocations.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 6 7
Year 3 6 7
Year 5 7 8
Year 10 7 8
Year 20 8 9

Federal worker (Virginia)

Age: 55 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm not very aware of what ESG even means for my investments, I just follow the default options.
  • This policy seems complicated but probably won’t impact me directly.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 7 7

Military retiree (Florida)

Age: 40 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 15.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I prefer to include ESG options as part of a balanced retirement strategy.
  • This seems restrictive, but I'll manage with conventional options if necessary.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 6
Year 2 5 6
Year 3 6 7
Year 5 6 7
Year 10 6 8
Year 20 7 8

Federal contractor (Illinois)

Age: 30 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I was just starting to explore ESG investments as part of a balanced portfolio.
  • While I think ESG insights are valuable, my main focus is growing my savings effectively.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 5 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 6 7
Year 10 7 8
Year 20 8 9

Retired military officer (North Carolina)

Age: 65 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I prefer clear, stable options rather than constantly evaluating ESG metrics.
  • The focus for me is predictability and consistent returns.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 8 8
Year 5 8 8
Year 10 8 8
Year 20 8 8

Federal intern (Georgia)

Age: 29 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 2/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The loss of ESG options limits my strategy for ethical investment growth.
  • I'm young and want to diversify to reflect economic changes, even ESG.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 4 5
Year 2 4 6
Year 3 5 7
Year 5 5 7
Year 10 6 8
Year 20 7 9

Civil service worker (Ohio)

Age: 48 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 1.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I don't fully understand what this ESG focus means for my TSP so I'm mostly neutral.
  • My main concern is avoiding losses rather than gaining extra options.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 7
Year 5 6 7
Year 10 6 7
Year 20 6 7

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $5000000 (Low: $3000000, High: $7000000)

Year 2: $5000000 (Low: $3000000, High: $7000000)

Year 3: $5000000 (Low: $3000000, High: $7000000)

Year 5: $5000000 (Low: $3000000, High: $7000000)

Year 10: $5000000 (Low: $3000000, High: $7000000)

Year 100: $5000000 (Low: $3000000, High: $7000000)

Key Considerations