Policy Impact Analysis - 117/S/4995

Bill Overview

Title: Continental Divide Trail Completion Act

Description: This bill directs the Forest Service and the Department of the Interior to complete the Continental Divide National Scenic Trail as a contiguous route by November 10, 2028. The Forest Service and Interior must also establish a joint Forest Service and Bureau of Land Management trail completion team to work in coordination with the administrator of the trail to facilitate its completion and optimization. In addition, the Forest Service must submit to specified congressional committees a comprehensive development plan for the trail.

Sponsors: Sen. Heinrich, Martin [D-NM]

Target Audience

Population: individuals who engage with or are affected by the Continental Divide National Scenic Trail

Estimated Size: 5000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Outdoor Recreation Enthusiast (Denver, Colorado)

Age: 35 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 7.5 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I am thrilled about the idea of having the trail completed. It will make multi-day hikes so much easier to plan and execute.
  • A continuous trail will mean less uncertainty and potentially safer conditions for hikers.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 9 8
Year 3 9 8
Year 5 9 8
Year 10 9 7
Year 20 8 6

Small Business Owner (Santa Fe, New Mexico)

Age: 50 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • If the trail attracts more hikers, my business might see more customers, which would be amazing for us.
  • I'm hopeful but cautious – it's a big project and there are always delays and issues.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 8 6
Year 5 9 6
Year 10 8 5
Year 20 7 5

Forest Service Employee (Bozeman, Montana)

Age: 27 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • It's a great initiative that aligns with my work in conservation and my personal values.
  • The challenge will be completing this trail without impacting sensitive environments negatively.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 8 7
Year 20 7 6

Tour Guide (Jackson, Wyoming)

Age: 42 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • While more tourists are good for business, we need to ensure that increased traffic doesn't damage the nature we treasure.
  • Balancing economic benefits and conservation efforts is crucial.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 9 7
Year 10 8 6
Year 20 7 6

Retiree (Butte, Montana)

Age: 60 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Finishing the trail would bring more people to this area, which has benefits, but I'm worried about the impact on local wildlife paths.
  • I love the peace of the trail as it is. More people might change that.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 6 6

Graduate Student (Idaho Falls, Idaho)

Age: 30 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This project interests me academically and personally. It's a chance to implement best practices in large-scale trail projects.
  • I'm concerned about possible ecological side-effects if the trail expansion isn't handled carefully.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 8 7
Year 20 7 6

Hotel Manager (Albuquerque, New Mexico)

Age: 45 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 8.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Improving the trail could bring more tourists, which might fill our rooms more often.
  • Economic gains don't always translate directly to personal wellbeing, but they help.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 7 5
Year 5 8 5
Year 10 7 5
Year 20 6 5

Appalachian Trail Hiker (Colorado Springs, Colorado)

Age: 29 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Seeing a trail completed is inspiring. It's like finishing a marathon, and it's beneficial for serious hikers like myself.
  • I'd love for the CDT to be as well-marked and maintained as other long trails.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 8 6
Year 3 8 6
Year 5 9 6
Year 10 9 6
Year 20 9 6

Environmental Activist (Missoula, Montana)

Age: 34 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The trail completion needs to respect ecological boundaries. If done right, it can serve as a great case study for balancing human activity and conservation.
  • I'm supportive if the project listens to environmental concerns seriously.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 8 7
Year 20 7 6

Real Estate Agent (Cheyenne, Wyoming)

Age: 55 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 15.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • A completed trail could increase property values and interest in the region, considering its recreational appeal.
  • I'm hopeful that this policy will spur some local economic growth.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 8 6
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 7 6

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $3000000 (Low: $2500000, High: $3500000)

Year 2: $4000000 (Low: $3500000, High: $4500000)

Year 3: $5500000 (Low: $5000000, High: $6000000)

Year 5: $10000000 (Low: $9000000, High: $11000000)

Year 10: $500000 (Low: $400000, High: $600000)

Year 100: $100000 (Low: $50000, High: $150000)

Key Considerations