Policy Impact Analysis - 117/S/4963

Bill Overview

Title: Combating Cartels on Social Media Act of 2022

Description: This bill requires the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to report and implement a strategy to combat the use of social media by transnational criminal organizations to recruit individuals in the United States to support illicit activities in the United States or countries near a U.S. international border. DHS must also identify a designee within U.S. Customs and Border Protection to receive, process, and disseminate information about these social media recruitment activities. The information must be disseminated to federal, tribal, state, and local entities to support appropriate government functions, such as providing actionable intelligence to law enforcement.

Sponsors: Sen. Sinema, Kyrsten [D-AZ]

Target Audience

Population: People using social media in North America who could be influenced by crime organizations

Estimated Size: 5000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Customs and Border Protection Officer (San Diego, CA)

Age: 45 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I've seen how social media is used to lure young people into illicit activities.
  • This policy gives us better tools to tackle this problem.
  • I hope it leads to fewer families being affected by cartel violence.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 8 6
Year 10 8 5
Year 20 9 5

College Student (El Paso, TX)

Age: 22 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 12/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Social media is a big part of my life but it can be a risky place.
  • I'm hoping this new policy will make it safer for people like me.
  • It might not change much immediately, but it's good they're doing something.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 6 4
Year 5 6 4
Year 10 7 4
Year 20 8 4

Social Media Influencer (Dallas, TX)

Age: 33 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm always wary of the influences on social media, especially for younger audiences.
  • This policy seems like a step in the right direction.
  • I use multiple platforms and have observed different risks.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 8 6
Year 10 8 5
Year 20 8 5

Police Officer (Detroit, MI)

Age: 50 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • It's about time something's being done about online recruitment by criminal groups.
  • It should equip us with better tools to prevent crime and protect our community.
  • I believe the policy will make law enforcement more effective over time.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 7 5
Year 5 7 5
Year 10 8 5
Year 20 9 5

Software Developer (New York, NY)

Age: 28 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • While I appreciate the intent, I hope this doesn't compromise our users' privacy.
  • Balance between safety and privacy should be maintained.
  • The tech industry must work with the government to ensure effectiveness.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 7 7

Journalist (Tucson, AZ)

Age: 40 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 15.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This strategy can change how cartels operate if implemented well.
  • I'm curious how effective it will be in law enforcement circles.
  • Following its impacts on court cases will be interesting.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 5
Year 5 7 5
Year 10 7 5
Year 20 8 4

High School Student (Los Angeles, CA)

Age: 19 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 8.0 years

Commonness: 15/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Social media is both fun and dangerous at times.
  • I'm glad to hear something is being done to address safety, especially around here.
  • It would be reassuring if it makes platforms safer.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 6 4
Year 3 6 4
Year 5 6 4
Year 10 7 4
Year 20 7 4

Community Organizer (Nogales, AZ)

Age: 38 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 2/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This could help reduce cartel influence on our youth.
  • We always need more resources to tackle these issues locally.
  • I hope this leads to more education and prevention programs.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 8 6
Year 3 8 5
Year 5 8 5
Year 10 9 5
Year 20 9 5

Retired (San Antonio, TX)

Age: 56 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I've seen my community's struggles with cartel activities.
  • I hope this leads to a safer environment for my grandchildren.
  • Time will tell how effective this policy will be.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 6 5
Year 5 7 5
Year 10 7 5
Year 20 8 5

Social Worker (Chicago, IL)

Age: 29 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • A policy like this could mean fewer kids are exposed to these dangerous offers.
  • Education and online safety are key components in reducing risks.
  • I hope this initiative has real, tangible impacts.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 7 5
Year 10 8 5
Year 20 8 5

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $60000000 (Low: $50000000, High: $70000000)

Year 2: $55000000 (Low: $45000000, High: $65000000)

Year 3: $55000000 (Low: $45000000, High: $65000000)

Year 5: $50000000 (Low: $40000000, High: $60000000)

Year 10: $50000000 (Low: $40000000, High: $60000000)

Year 100: $50000000 (Low: $40000000, High: $60000000)

Key Considerations