Policy Impact Analysis - 117/S/4948

Bill Overview

Title: Empowering States to Deport Illegal Immigrants Act

Description: This bill authorizes states to take actions to enforce federal immigration law. Specifically, the bill authorizes states to authorize state and local law enforcement to enforce certain provisions of federal immigration law, including provisions relating to unlawful entry and employing unauthorized non-U.S. nationals (aliens under federal law). State prosecutors must prosecute every case brought by a state under this bill. The bill also abrogates a 2012 Supreme Court ruling that invalidated an Arizona law that made it a crime for unauthorized non-U.S. nationals to work in the state. Specifically, the court ruled that the Arizona law was preempted by federal immigration law.

Sponsors: Sen. Hawley, Josh [R-MO]

Target Audience

Population: Undocumented immigrants residing in the United States

Estimated Size: 11000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Construction Worker (Phoenix, Arizona)

Age: 30 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm really scared that I might be separated from my children if this law passes. It feels like there's nowhere to find peace, even at work.
  • I know many people like me working hard and paying taxes, yet we live in constant fear.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 3 5
Year 2 3 5
Year 3 2 5
Year 5 2 5
Year 10 1 4
Year 20 1 4

Restaurant Owner (Chicago, Illinois)

Age: 42 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • My business relies on hardworking people who are undocumented. If this policy goes into effect, it could decimate my workforce.
  • I fear a crackdown would tear apart the immigrant community that supports this neighborhood and economy.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 5 7
Year 3 4 6
Year 5 3 5
Year 10 3 5
Year 20 2 5

Software Engineer (Austin, Texas)

Age: 25 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 12/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • While I'm documented, this policy scares me for my friends who are not. It feels like things are going backward for human rights.
  • I worry about my friends being profiled and targeted disproportionately.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 6
Year 2 5 6
Year 3 5 6
Year 5 5 6
Year 10 5 6
Year 20 5 6

Retired Teacher (Raleigh, North Carolina)

Age: 60 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I've seen how much immigrants contribute to our society, and this policy could undo a lot of our hard-earned solidarity.
  • Many families I know will live in fear—it's not fair to them or beneficial for us.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 8
Year 2 6 8
Year 3 5 8
Year 5 5 7
Year 10 4 7
Year 20 3 7

Police Officer (Miami, Florida)

Age: 50 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 11/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I've seen crime linked to illegal immigration and believe local enforcement will help maintain law and order.
  • There needs to be a balance, though—careful not to uproot families with no criminal records.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 7
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 6 6
Year 20 6 6

Freelancer (Los Angeles, California)

Age: 36 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 4

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I've tried every legal way to become documented, and this law makes my situation even more precarious.
  • My kids, who are U.S. citizens, could lose their mother to deportation.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 2 4
Year 2 2 4
Year 3 2 3
Year 5 1 3
Year 10 1 3
Year 20 1 3

High School Teacher (Denver, Colorado)

Age: 28 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy is terrifying, as it could lead to me losing everything I've worked for since coming to the U.S. as a child.
  • Teaching kids, some of whom are also undocumented, knowing this might happen, is heartbreaking.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 4 5
Year 2 4 5
Year 3 3 4
Year 5 3 4
Year 10 3 4
Year 20 3 4

Nurse (New York, New York)

Age: 31 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 9/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm torn because while I'm legally protected, my parents aren't. This policy intensifies our fears and uncertainties.
  • Work feels like my only safe place, but I'm constantly worried about my family's safety.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 5 7
Year 3 5 7
Year 5 4 6
Year 10 4 6
Year 20 4 6

College Student (Houston, Texas)

Age: 24 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I've worked hard for my scholarship, and this policy makes me fear I won't be able to complete my degree.
  • I'm worried I might have to leave the U.S. despite all my efforts to integrate and contribute.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 3 5
Year 2 2 5
Year 3 2 5
Year 5 1 4
Year 10 1 4
Year 20 1 4

Public Defender (San Francisco, California)

Age: 38 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy would likely increase my workload significantly, as states start prosecuting more cases locally.
  • I fear for my clients who have established lives here and are at risk of getting caught in legal crossfires.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 8
Year 2 6 8
Year 3 6 8
Year 5 5 7
Year 10 5 7
Year 20 4 7

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $500000000 (Low: $300000000, High: $700000000)

Year 2: $525000000 (Low: $315000000, High: $735000000)

Year 3: $551250000 (Low: $330750000, High: $771750000)

Year 5: $606281250 (Low: $363281250, High: $847031250)

Year 10: $765313953 (Low: $458671875, High: $1069563281)

Year 100: $7163052863 (Low: $4297826663, High: $10088249063)

Key Considerations