Policy Impact Analysis - 117/S/4945

Bill Overview

Title: Catastrophic Wildfire Prevention Act of 2022

Description: This bill directs the Forest Service to establish a pilot program to implement treatments and conduct related fire-suppression activities in areas of the National Forest System that are (1) west of the 100th meridian, and (2) near communities that may benefit from such treatments and activities.

Sponsors: Sen. Lee, Mike [R-UT]

Target Audience

Population: People living in wildfire-prone areas in western US

Estimated Size: 78000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Elementary school teacher (Northern California)

Age: 45 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm worried about the increasing threat of wildfires every summer.
  • If this policy reduces fire risk, our community will feel much safer.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 5
Year 2 7 5
Year 3 7 5
Year 5 8 5
Year 10 8 4
Year 20 7 3

Firefighter (Colorado)

Age: 38 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 15.0 years

Commonness: 12/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Primary prevention reduces our risk exposure on the frontlines.
  • I hope the program provides necessary resources for our professional training.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 8 6
Year 3 8 6
Year 5 9 5
Year 10 8 5
Year 20 7 4

Research scientist (Nevada)

Age: 27 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This is a positive step towards proactive environmental protection.
  • Research funding associated with such policies strengthens our work.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 8 6
Year 5 8 6
Year 10 7 5
Year 20 6 4

Rancher (Oregon)

Age: 34 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 4

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 15/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Every year my livelihood is jeopardized by fire threats.
  • This plan needs to address landowner concerns and support directly.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 4
Year 2 6 4
Year 3 6 3
Year 5 7 3
Year 10 7 2
Year 20 6 2

Park Ranger (Arizona)

Age: 50 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Enhancing fire prevention is crucial for park conservation.
  • I've seen firsthand the devastating impact of unchecked wildfires.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 8 6
Year 3 8 5
Year 5 9 5
Year 10 9 4
Year 20 8 3

Tech startup employee (Washington)

Age: 29 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 14/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Protective measures for these natural areas are important to me.
  • My outdoor lifestyle strongly impacts my wellbeing.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 9 7
Year 5 9 7
Year 10 9 6
Year 20 8 5

Retired engineer (Southern California)

Age: 62 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 18/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I've seen the direct impact on both property and personal health.
  • This initiative could provide crucial support for local efforts.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 7 4
Year 5 8 4
Year 10 8 3
Year 20 7 3

College student (Idaho)

Age: 21 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 9/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Policies like this guide our conversations in solving environmental issues.
  • I'm hopeful for effective results and real change.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 8 6
Year 5 8 5
Year 10 8 5
Year 20 7 4

Retired forest service employee (Montana)

Age: 60 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 4

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Combining history with current strategies could be impactful.
  • It's crucial these efforts gain political and community support.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 4
Year 2 6 4
Year 3 7 3
Year 5 8 3
Year 10 8 2
Year 20 8 2

Wildlife Photographer (Utah)

Age: 41 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Positive for preserving ecosystems, crucial for my work.
  • The natural beauty of these areas is vital to protect.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 8 5
Year 3 8 5
Year 5 9 5
Year 10 8 4
Year 20 7 3

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $500000000 (Low: $400000000, High: $600000000)

Year 2: $525000000 (Low: $420000000, High: $630000000)

Year 3: $551250000 (Low: $441000000, High: $661500000)

Year 5: $605062500 (Low: $484500000, High: $726750000)

Year 10: $706318125 (Low: $565275000, High: $847581750)

Year 100: $1838208433 (Low: $1463698300, High: $2206918567)

Key Considerations