Policy Impact Analysis - 117/S/4943

Bill Overview

Title: Preserving the Gulf Test Range to Ensure Military Readiness Act

Description: This bill establishes a moratorium on energy development (e.g., offshore wind development) in specified areas of the Gulf of Mexico until June 30, 2032. Until that date, the Department of the Interior may not conduct certain energy development activities in any area east of the Military Mission Line in the Gulf of Mexico. The moratorium also applies to other areas of the Outer Continental Shelf—the South Atlantic Planning Area, the Straits of Florida Planning Area, or any area west of the Military Mission Line in the Gulf of Mexico—if energy exploration, leasing, or development in that area has been identified as having any adverse effect on national security, military readiness, or the Department of Defense's testing capabilities. However, Interior may issue leases in those areas for environmental conservation purposes, including the purposes of shore protection, beach nourishment and restoration, wetlands restoration, and habitat protection.

Sponsors: Sen. Rubio, Marco [R-FL]

Target Audience

Population: People living or working in areas affected by Gulf of Mexico energy development policies

Estimated Size: 200000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Offshore drilling engineer (Houston, Texas)

Age: 45 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I think this moratorium might cost jobs in the energy sector, including my own.
  • I understand the need for military readiness, but we need solutions that also protect jobs.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 7
Year 2 5 7
Year 3 5 7
Year 5 6 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 7 7

Environmental scientist (Tampa, Florida)

Age: 32 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm encouraged by the emphasis on environmental conservation and habitat protection.
  • This policy could lead to long-term benefits for local ecosystems.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 8 6
Year 3 8 6
Year 5 9 6
Year 10 9 6
Year 20 9 6

Military officer (Mobile, Alabama)

Age: 29 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy is crucial to maintain our current training operations without disruptions.
  • A secure and uninterrupted test range is vital for national defense.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 9 8
Year 2 9 8
Year 3 9 8
Year 5 9 8
Year 10 9 8
Year 20 9 8

Hotel Manager (New Orleans, Louisiana)

Age: 54 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This could boost eco-tourism in the region as conservation efforts take hold.
  • Any disruption to the energy sector might temporarily impact local economy, but long-term benefits are possible.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 8 6
Year 10 9 6
Year 20 9 6

Fishing charter business owner (Miami, Florida)

Age: 40 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Protecting the Gulf is critical for maintaining fish stocks and my business.
  • I hope conservation measures will enhance fish habitats.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 8 6
Year 3 8 6
Year 5 8 6
Year 10 9 6
Year 20 9 6

Environmental policy advocate (Pensacola, Florida)

Age: 39 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm pleased to see concerted efforts towards conservation in vital areas.
  • The policy aligns with our advocacy goals.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 7
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 9 7
Year 5 9 7
Year 10 9 7
Year 20 9 7

Energy company executive (Biloxi, Mississippi)

Age: 52 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This moratorium threatens future projects and potential revenue for the company.
  • While I support national security, balanced solutions are needed.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 8
Year 2 5 8
Year 3 5 8
Year 5 6 8
Year 10 7 8
Year 20 8 8

Marine biologist (Key West, Florida)

Age: 31 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Moratorium might lead to improved marine habitats over time.
  • We need careful management of these conservation efforts.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 8 6
Year 3 9 6
Year 5 9 6
Year 10 9 6
Year 20 9 6

Oil rig worker (Corpus Christi, Texas)

Age: 27 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 4

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 9/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Job security is already uncertain, and this makes it worse.
  • Energy sector workers need more support if projects are halted.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 3 4
Year 2 3 4
Year 3 3 4
Year 5 4 4
Year 10 5 4
Year 20 5 4

Retired U.S. Navy officer (Port St. Joe, Florida)

Age: 60 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Protecting military operational areas is of utmost priority for national security.
  • I support the move to maintain our defense capabilities.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 8 8
Year 5 8 8
Year 10 8 8
Year 20 8 8

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $30000000 (Low: $20000000, High: $50000000)

Year 2: $30500000 (Low: $20500000, High: $50500000)

Year 3: $31000000 (Low: $21000000, High: $51000000)

Year 5: $31500000 (Low: $21500000, High: $51500000)

Year 10: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)

Year 100: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)

Key Considerations