Bill Overview
Title: Non-Recognition of Russian Annexation of Ukrainian Territory Act
Description: This bill prohibits any federal agency from taking any action or extending any assistance that recognizes or implies recognition of Russia's sovereignty over any internationally recognized territory of Ukraine, including its airspace and territorial waters.
Sponsors: Sen. Rubio, Marco [R-FL]
Target Audience
Population: People living in internationally recognized Ukrainian territories claimed by Russia
Estimated Size: 331000000
- The bill directly concerns international relations and geopolitics involving Russia and Ukraine.
- It will affect populations living in the contested territories within Ukraine that Russia claims to have annexed.
- The bill influences the foreign policies of countries and can affect global political dynamics, especially among countries allied with the US.
- The geopolitical stability of Eastern Europe may impact global and regional political and economic environments.
- The bill indirectly affects US taxpayers as their federal agency policies might be impacted, leading to potential adjustments in foreign aid and diplomatic strategies.
- Although the bill is about not recognizing the annexation, it can still affect bilateral relations between the US and Russia, impacting citizens who are involved in business, culture, and travel between the two countries.
Reasoning
- The policy is mostly geopolitical, affecting international relations and foreign policy.
- Most US individuals may experience indirect effects related to foreign policy and economic changes.
- US residents with direct ties to Ukraine, Russia, or geopolitical activities might see personal or professional impacts.
- Business sectors involved in Eastern European markets might perceive distant economic impacts.
- General American taxpayers are indirectly affected only if policy reallocates foreign aid or alters international trade.
- Cultural sectors like travel and international arts might be minimally impacted.
Simulated Interviews
International Trade Consultant (New York, NY)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I believe this policy could stabilize international markets, which is crucial for my work.
- I'm aware that worsening US-Russia relations might introduce new trade challenges.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 5 |
Tech Entrepreneur (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 34 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I hope it encourages stability in the region which could benefit tech investments.
- There might be challenges if US-Russia-Chinese tech relations suffer.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Retired School Principal (Chicago, IL)
Age: 60 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm in support of this policy as it aligns with my values regarding Ukraine.
- Direct effects on my day-to-day life are minimal, but I feel it's needed.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
Freelance Writer (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 29 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I think it could provide more material for my writing, though tensions might rise.
- Professionally, I expect limited downsides.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Oil Industry Executive (Houston, TX)
Age: 50 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 7.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Policy might lead to stricter sanctions impacting business.
- Market stability would be positive.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 5 |
Travel Agent (Miami, FL)
Age: 40 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- If travel tensions increase, it could affect my business negatively.
- I'm concerned about geopolitical stability.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 5 |
NGO Worker (Seattle, WA)
Age: 27 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy aligns with the work of my organization.
- It could increase US involvement in the human rights dialogues I'm passionate about.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
University Professor (Boston, MA)
Age: 55 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy could enrich my curriculum.
- I expect potential for academic discourse.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
College Student (Phoenix, AZ)
Age: 19 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm curious how this will influence my studies.
- I feel a personal connection due to my family background.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
Retired (Atlanta, GA)
Age: 67 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- It makes an ethical statement I agree with but has little effect on my life.
- I'm glad for the government's stance.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $50000000 (Low: $30000000, High: $70000000)
Year 2: $51000000 (Low: $30600000, High: $71400000)
Year 3: $52020000 (Low: $31212000, High: $72828000)
Year 5: $53175000 (Low: $31905000, High: $74445000)
Year 10: $56082750 (Low: $33649650, High: $78449250)
Year 100: $110549804 (Low: $66329882, High: $154769725)
Key Considerations
- The policy's main intent is political, aiming to maintain international norms and support Ukrainian sovereignty.
- The compliance cost is driven by administrative needs rather than large-scale economic factors.
- Potential international diplomatic fallout needs consideration, especially in relation to US-Russia relations.