Bill Overview
Title: PUNISH Act of 2022
Description: This bill extends sanctions and national emergencies related to Iran established by specified executive orders and limits the authority of the President to waive sanctions related to Iran. The bill requires the Department of State to periodically report whether Iran or any foreign person has supported specified activities, including murder or politically motivated detention in Iran of a U.S. citizen.
Sponsors: Sen. Ernst, Joni [R-IA]
Target Audience
Population: People residing in Iran, potentially affected by extended sanctions.
Estimated Size: 10000
- This bill directly targets Iran by extending sanctions on it, implying that those involved with Iran's economic and political activities could be affected.
- Iran's government and organizations conducting activities contrary to US interests will be directly impacted.
- Those working in or for entities within Iran that might be involved in the specified activities might find it challenging to carry out their work due to tightened sanctions.
- Companies and individuals working with Iran might see increased scrutiny and face legal or financial consequences if found supporting the specified activities.
Reasoning
- The budget suggests significant financial resources are allocated towards enforcing sanctions, particularly affecting Americans and businesses linked to Iran.
- The target population includes Americans in Iran, business professionals dealing with Iran, and the broader US population indirectly influenced by geopolitical changes.
- Most Americans might not feel a direct impact, but those with ties to Iran's economic and political spheres might experience a high impact.
- Given the scale of the global population potentially affected (83 million), the actual direct impact focus of the policy will be on a much smaller, specific segment (10,000 Americans), potentially decreasing broader economic ties with Iran.
Simulated Interviews
Export-Import Specialist (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 45 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The extension of sanctions makes my job more challenging.
- Our company may lose significant revenue due to increased restrictions.
- I worry about the stability of my career with the new sanctions.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Financial Analyst (New York, NY)
Age: 34 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The sanctions are a professional opportunity to manage financial risks.
- Our clients need advice on shifting portfolios to minimize exposure.
- Potential market volatility excites me as a challenge.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 8 |
Government Official (Washington, D.C.)
Age: 53 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 15/20
Statement of Opinion:
- These sanctions are necessary for national security.
- We must curb threats posed by state-supported violent actions.
- I support the bill due to its intentions, despite potential diplomatic tensions.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Tech Entrepreneur (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 26 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm worried about the potential blocking of my app in certain regions.
- Sanctions make international partnerships more complex.
- I hope for diplomatic resolution without impacting global tech.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Oil and Gas Consultant (Houston, TX)
Age: 40 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The sanctions will drastically alter project viability.
- We might have to redirect focus to other countries.
- This affects not just economics but also professional networks.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
International Lawyer (Austin, TX)
Age: 30 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 6.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I anticipate more demand for my expertise in sanctions compliance.
- Though profitable, it complicates my work-life balance.
- Worried about potential polarization in legal outcomes.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Retired Teacher (Boston, MA)
Age: 63 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 18/20
Statement of Opinion:
- A bit concerned about geopolitical instability.
- Hopeful that diplomatic engagements will prevail.
- Less personally affected but interested in the outcome on global peace.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
College Student (Chicago, IL)
Age: 22 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 4.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Concerned about the impact on Iranian citizens.
- Engaged in activism against economic sanctions.
- Hopeful for diplomatic solutions.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Business Owner (Miami, FL)
Age: 50 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 7.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I fear these sanctions will shut down our operations.
- There is a real threat to our revenues due to financial restrictions.
- It will be challenging to maintain business relationships.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 4 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 7 |
Academic Researcher (Philadelphia, PA)
Age: 47 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 6.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- While sanctions aim for safety, the effect on people is mixed.
- Research might witness increased relevance and funding.
- Eager to study the long-term effects of these policies.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $80000000 (Low: $60000000, High: $100000000)
Year 2: $82000000 (Low: $61000000, High: $102000000)
Year 3: $84000000 (Low: $63000000, High: $104000000)
Year 5: $88000000 (Low: $66000000, High: $108000000)
Year 10: $95000000 (Low: $70000000, High: $115000000)
Year 100: $150000000 (Low: $120000000, High: $180000000)
Key Considerations
- The geopolitical climate and Iran's response could alter enforcement costs.
- International cooperation is critical to enforcing sanctions effectively.
- Potential escalation or diplomatic consequences should be evaluated.