Bill Overview
Title: Drug Cartel Terrorist Designation Act
Description: This bill requires the Department of State to designate certain Mexican drug cartels as foreign terrorist organizations.
Sponsors: Sen. Marshall, Roger [R-KS]
Target Audience
Population: Individuals associated with Mexican drug cartels
Estimated Size: 1000000
- Mexican drug cartels consist of many individuals involved in drug manufacturing, trafficking, and distribution.
- Designating a group as a terrorist organization can significantly impact the legal and operational measures a country takes against it.
- Such a designation influences how law enforcement and national security entities allocate resources, engage in intelligence activities, and pursue legal actions.
- Mexican drug cartels have a significant influence over certain regions in Mexico, affecting the lives of thousands of residents due to violence, corruption, and economic impact.
Reasoning
- This policy targets individuals associated with Mexican drug cartels located primarily in Mexico but also affects U.S. citizens, particularly those involved in drug enforcement, victims of cartel violence, and individuals consuming illegal drugs.
- With a significant budget over a 10-year period, the policy is intended to bolster law enforcement and intelligence efforts against these cartels, potentially changing operations and reducing cartel influence.
- We included interviewees impacted directly (e.g., drug consumers, law enforcement officers) and indirectly (e.g., border community residents, social workers dealing with addiction issues).
- The 20-year outlook considers the slow but possible decline in cartel influence over time due to sustained enforcement efforts.
Simulated Interviews
Undercover DEA Agent (San Diego, CA)
Age: 25 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The designation would allow us to act more decisively and align resources better.
- I believe it can empower legal frameworks to prosecute cartel affiliates more effectively.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 10 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 6 |
Community Health Worker (El Paso, TX)
Age: 42 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy might reduce some of the violence and improve safety.
- However, it could make access to drugs even more dangerous for users.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 4 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 4 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 4 |
Illegal Drug User (Chicago, IL)
Age: 33 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 4
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This will likely make getting drugs riskier and more expensive.
- I worry about increased street violence if turf wars escalate.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 3 | 4 |
| Year 2 | 4 | 4 |
| Year 3 | 4 | 3 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 3 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 3 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 2 |
Border Patrol Officer (Phoenix, AZ)
Age: 50 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 15.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I think the policy gives us more tools to combat smuggling.
- Better coordination with other agencies could improve border security.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 5 |
Social Worker (New York, NY)
Age: 28 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Policies like this might help decreasing supply, but we need more addiction support services.
- Long-term solutions should focus on demand-side interventions too.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 5 |
Retired Law Enforcement Officer (Houston, TX)
Age: 60 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I've seen all kinds of measures; treating them as terrorists can change the game.
- Still puzzled about long-term impacts and if violence may initially increase.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 5 |
College Student (College Town, OH)
Age: 19 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Concerned this policy might expand law enforcement reach too broadly.
- Worried about increased incarceration rates.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 5 |
Defense Attorney (Miami, FL)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This could mean more cases but harder defenses.
- Legal interpretations are going to change drastically.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 5 |
School Teacher (Tucson, AZ)
Age: 39 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This might make the area safer, but education is still key.
- I hope it translates into more resources for schools.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 5 |
Nonprofit Director (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 52 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Designating cartels as terrorists might open up new avenues for legal recourse and funding.
- Concerns remain about maintaining a balance with civil liberties.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 6 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $50000000 (Low: $30000000, High: $70000000)
Year 2: $52000000 (Low: $32000000, High: $72000000)
Year 3: $53000000 (Low: $33000000, High: $73000000)
Year 5: $55000000 (Low: $35000000, High: $75000000)
Year 10: $60000000 (Low: $40000000, High: $80000000)
Year 100: $100000000 (Low: $70000000, High: $130000000)
Key Considerations
- The designation could complicate diplomatic relations with Mexico and necessitate additional diplomatic initiatives.
- Resource allocation to law enforcement and intelligence will need significant adjustment, impacting various government agencies.
- Potential for increased domestic legal and enforcement proceedings against individuals linked to these organizations.