Bill Overview
Title: CAUTION Act
Description: This bill sets conditions on the provision of civil or military assistance to Colombia.
Sponsors: Sen. Cruz, Ted [R-TX]
Target Audience
Population: People in Colombia
Estimated Size: 330000000
- The CAUTION Act imposes conditions on civil or military assistance to Colombia, which suggests both sectors may be affected.
- Colombia's population should be directly affected as the assistance ties directly to their country.
- Military personnel and government officials might be impacted as oversight and conditions change.
- The general public in Colombia may feel effects if significant military or civil projects are delayed or altered.
- Colombian communities reliant on US aid for various projects will directly sense change.
- International relations between US and Colombia can also directly impact Colombian citizens if diplomatic attitudes change.
Reasoning
- The primary targets of the policy impact are US government and military personnel involved in aid operations to Colombia, businesses, and citizens indirectly funding this aid through taxes.
- Since the CAUTION Act sets conditions, government officials in the US and Colombia might see operational changes which minorly trickle down to the American public due to administrative shifts.
- The financial limit of $20 million per year is modest compared to overall government spending, meaning direct impact on individuals or daily life is likely minimal, especially when spread across the broad US population.
- Individuals with personal or professional connections to Colombia might experience a more significant indirect impact.
- We assume most interviewees may not feel a large degree of change in their personal wellbeing, but impact might subtly accumulate over time with government and fiscal shifts.
Simulated Interviews
Foreign Policy Analyst (Washington D.C.)
Age: 42 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The CAUTION Act represents a positive move towards ensuring transparency in international aid.
- I am concerned about the immediate impact on lived realities in Colombia, especially if bureaucratic hurdles delay vital support.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 8 |
Investor in Emerging Markets (New York)
Age: 50 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- As an investor, US policies affecting Colombia are crucial. Conditional aid means more stability and fewer unpredictable changes, beneficial in the long run.
- Short-term instability is a downside, but it's balanced by longer-term accountable partnerships.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Military Personnel (San Diego)
Age: 35 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Implementing oversight in aid deployments could mean more effective missions.
- There could be bureaucratic delays that impact mission success, but the eventual goal seems beneficial.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 8 |
Retired Taxpayer (Texas)
Age: 61 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm glad to see stricter oversight. My taxes should be used wisely, even abroad.
- Indirectly, it might mean more funds for domestic use if wasteful spending is curtailed.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 5 |
Social Activist (Florida)
Age: 27 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This act could represent more responsible foreign policies.
- There needs to be a clear balance between oversight and immediate needs, especially in crises.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Business Consultant (California)
Age: 45 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- It's crucial US aid is effective and monitored, providing stable ground for expansion.
- Potential delays might discourage businesses initially, but strengthened ties are long-term positives.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 8 |
Software Developer (Illinois)
Age: 30 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 1.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Technological transparency will be crucial in this act to ensure effective monitoring without delays.
- Oversight should not hinder the immediate needs of aid recipients.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Government Advisor (Ohio)
Age: 52 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Oversight is foremost for our international support systems, ensuring every dollar counts.
- I hope it leads to more impactful use of funds, aligning with strategic goals.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 10 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 10 | 9 |
College Student (Colorado)
Age: 24 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 1.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Ensuring transparency is beneficial for future diplomatic relations.
- There needs to be an emphasis on adapting quickly to changing needs without being bogged down.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Non-Profit Worker (Michigan)
Age: 38 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The CAUTION Act could significantly improve oversight, enhancing program efficiency.
- Immediate impacts are worrying, especially in fast-changing, aid-reliant environments.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 6 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $20000000 (Low: $15000000, High: $25000000)
Year 2: $20000000 (Low: $15000000, High: $25000000)
Year 3: $20000000 (Low: $15000000, High: $25000000)
Year 5: $20000000 (Low: $15000000, High: $25000000)
Year 10: $20000000 (Low: $15000000, High: $25000000)
Year 100: $20000000 (Low: $15000000, High: $25000000)
Key Considerations
- Whether the Act will result in net cost or savings hinges on the degree to which aid is reduced or conditions met.
- The impact on bilateral relationships and subsequent economic effects on trade partners.
- Legal and administrative capacities to implement oversight efficiently and without excessive cost inflation.