Bill Overview
Title: Russia is a State Sponsor of Terrorism Act
Description: This bill designates Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism. (A country with this designation is subject to certain restrictions, including a ban on receiving U.S. defense exports and limits on receiving U.S. foreign assistance.)
Sponsors: Sen. Graham, Lindsey [R-SC]
Target Audience
Population: Individuals globally connected to Russia either through business, geopolitics, or residence.
Estimated Size: 1800000
- The designation of a country as a State Sponsor of Terrorism typically leads to significant political and economic ramifications both globally and within the designated country.
- Globally, all U.S.-based companies conducting business with Russia may be impacted due to increased sanctions and restrictions.
- Russian citizens are likely to be directly impacted due to potential increased economic hardships resulting from reduced access to international trade and economic instability.
- There will likely be wider geopolitical impacts in regions closely aligned or interconnected with Russia, such as parts of Eastern Europe and Central Asia.
- Sanctions and restrictions could exacerbate tensions between Russia and the U.S., affecting global diplomatic relations and potentially military dynamics.
Reasoning
- The policy designating Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism will likely have limited direct social impact on individual Americans, as its effects are more economically and geopolitically oriented.
- Most of the individuals directly impacted in the U.S. will be those engaged in economic activities with Russia. These could include business executives, employees of multinational companies with Russian ties, and investors.
- Approximately 1.8 million Americans could be impacted due to economic and job security issues related to businesses dealing with Russia, according to estimates.
- Given budget constraints, the policy won't directly provide financial support to affected individuals, thus likely having indirect, rather than direct, impacts on individual wellbeing scores.
- The policy is more likely to affect business environments, consumer prices, and possibly international travel advisories, rather than the day-to-day activities of average U.S. citizens.
- Impact on Cantril wellbeing scores is likely subtle for most Americans, with more pronounced effects for those closely tied to businesses reliant on Russian markets.
Simulated Interviews
Corporate Lawyer (New York, NY)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I understand the need for such policies but worry about how it may affect my Russian clients.
- Trade restrictions might complicate legal counsel and reduce my client base, impacting job security.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Tech Executive (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 38 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This designation could disrupt our supply chain, impacting production timelines.
- I am concerned about our dependence on Russian components and potential future supply chain shortages.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Oil Industry Worker (Houston, TX)
Age: 52 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- There are worries that new sanctions could affect my job if our projects in Russia are halted.
- I hope the company can navigate these geopolitical tensions without major downsizing.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 4 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 4 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 8 |
Start-up Founder (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 29 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Expanding to Russia was part of our growth strategy.
- We'll now need to reconsider market strategies and perhaps delay expansion.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Retired (Miami, FL)
Age: 61 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm concerned about the value of my investments in Russian stocks.
- May need to shift my portfolio to less risky markets.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Policy Analyst (Chicago, IL)
Age: 33 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy provides more opportunities for analysis and research in my field, which could be positive for my career.
- However, I worry about the broader geopolitical tensions this policy might exacerbate.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Graduate Student (Boston, MA)
Age: 24 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy might affect my fieldwork opportunities in Russia.
- Though it provides a rich avenue for thesis work, I'm concerned about reduced access to Russian scholars and archives.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Import/Export Business Owner (Seattle, WA)
Age: 50 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This bill might severely impact my supply chain and the availability of imports from Russia.
- I fear potential cost hikes and loss of business.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 4 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 9 |
Energy Sector Consultant (Houston, TX)
Age: 47 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The designation affects the advisability of investing in Russian energy projects.
- Lack of clarity about future relations with Russia worries many of my clients.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Financial Analyst (New York, NY)
Age: 34 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy might lead to volatility in the stock markets I cover, making my job more hectic.
- It's a chance to provide valuable insights, but there’s worry about overall market instability.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $50000000 (Low: $30000000, High: $80000000)
Year 2: $40000000 (Low: $20000000, High: $70000000)
Year 3: $35000000 (Low: $15000000, High: $65000000)
Year 5: $30000000 (Low: $10000000, High: $60000000)
Year 10: $25000000 (Low: $5000000, High: $55000000)
Year 100: $10000000 (Low: $1000000, High: $40000000)
Key Considerations
- The exact economic impact is difficult to predict due to potential retaliatory measures from Russia.
- The bill requires substantial international coordination to maximize effectiveness and avoid unintended consequences.
- Potential for significant geopolitical ramifications and shifts in international relations.