Bill Overview
Title: Taiwan Symbols of Sovereignty (SOS) Act of 2022
Description: This bill directs the Department of State and the Department of Defense to permit representatives from Taiwan's government and armed forces to display Taiwan's flag and military insignia at U.S. government-hosted functions. (The U.S.-Taiwan relationship has been unofficial since 1979, when the United States established diplomatic relations with China and broke them with Taiwan.)
Sponsors: Sen. Cruz, Ted [R-TX]
Target Audience
Population: People of Taiwan
Estimated Size: 10000
- The bill involves the diplomatic relations between Taiwan and the United States.
- Approximately 23 million people live in Taiwan, who might be symbolically impacted by the display of their flag and military insignia at U.S. functions.
- The act affects diplomatic interactions which can indirectly influence U.S. and global perceptions of Taiwan.
- The global geopolitical community, especially countries with vested interests in cross-strait relations, will be indirectly impacted.
Reasoning
- The target population within the U.S. is relatively small, primarily focused on individuals working in diplomacy and foreign affairs.
- The impact of the policy will be subtle for the general public, mainly affecting those with a direct interest in Taiwan relations.
- Costs of the policy are low as it involves symbolic changes rather than extensive economic adjustments.
- While the policy could improve U.S.-Taiwan relations, the immediate wellbeing impact within the U.S. is limited as it primarily concerns diplomatic courtesies.
- The American general public may not perceive a significant change in wellbeing as the policy does not affect day-to-day life.
Simulated Interviews
Foreign Policy Analyst (Washington D.C.)
Age: 35 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This act is a positive step towards strengthening informal ties with Taiwan.
- Symbolic gestures can influence diplomatic perceptions, improving Taiwan's image.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Taiwanese-American Cultural Organization Member (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 29 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Seeing Taiwan's symbols at U.S. events is emotionally uplifting.
- It's a proud moment for the Taiwanese-American community.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Defense Contractor (Houston, TX)
Age: 45 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The act doesn't directly affect my work, but it's interesting geopolitically.
- It shows a shift in policy emphasis towards Taiwan.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
University Professor of International Relations (Seattle, WA)
Age: 56 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- It's academically significant as a shift in U.S. symbolic policy towards Taiwan.
- It might open more avenues for diplomatic discourse on the subject.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Graduate Student (New York, NY)
Age: 23 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I find the change fascinating from a legal standpoint.
- Wonder how it will reflect on broader policy shifts.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Businessman (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 52 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Though more symbolic, policies like this can improve the business climate.
- It signals a warming of relations.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Policy Maker (Chicago, IL)
Age: 40 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I see it as a useful tool for diplomatic signaling.
- Measures like this might have ripple effects globally.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Retired Military Officer (Boston, MA)
Age: 62 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 1.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The change is more symbolic, but shows where U.S. interests might lie.
- It doesn't change much on the ground.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
Journalist (Atlanta, GA)
Age: 31 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 1.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy is interesting from a news perspective and might bring more visibility to Taiwan issues.
- Personally, the change is mostly professional curiosity.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Banker (Dallas, TX)
Age: 28 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 1.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I doubt this will affect me much—seems like a small political shift.
- Watch the stock markets, though. Sometimes symbolism plays out bigger than expected.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 4 | 4 |
| Year 20 | 4 | 4 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $500000 (Low: $300000, High: $700000)
Year 2: $200000 (Low: $100000, High: $400000)
Year 3: $100000 (Low: $50000, High: $200000)
Year 5: $50000 (Low: $20000, High: $100000)
Year 10: $25000 (Low: $10000, High: $50000)
Year 100: $10000 (Low: $5000, High: $20000)
Key Considerations
- Geopolitical risks could change costs or savings if tensions rise due to symbol display prompting defensive actions.
- The complexity in estimating the economic impact of diplomatic actions means potential indirect benefits in trade or diplomacy are not quantified.
- The anticipated fiscal impact is negligible but should be monitored for any unintended diplomatic consequences.