Bill Overview
Title: Protecting Pain-Capable Unborn Children from Late-Term Abortions Act
Description: This bill establishes a new criminal offense for performing or attempting to perform an abortion if the probable gestational age of the fetus is 15 weeks or more. A violator is subject to criminal penalties—a fine, a prison term of up to five years, or both. The bill provides exceptions for an abortion (1) that is necessary to save the life of the pregnant woman, or (2) when the pregnancy is the result of rape or incest. A physician who performs or attempts to perform an abortion under an exception must comply with specified requirements. A woman who undergoes a prohibited abortion may not be prosecuted for violating or conspiring to violate the provisions of this bill.
Sponsors: Sen. Graham, Lindsey [R-SC]
Target Audience
Population: Pregnant women worldwide
Estimated Size: 3000000
- The bill targets abortions performed when the fetus is 15 weeks gestational age or older.
- Globally, the number of pregnant women could be estimated based on the birth rate. The world birth rate is approximately 18.5 births per 1,000 people per year.
- Not all pregnancies reach or exceed 15 weeks; some are terminated earlier by choice or due to medical reasons.
- Women seeking late-term abortions may be a small percentage of total pregnancies, considering current global regulations and availability of legal abortion services.
- The bill is likely to impact healthcare providers who perform or consider performing late-term abortions.
Reasoning
- The population impacted by this policy is relatively small compared to the overall US population given that it targets only a subset of pregnant women seeking abortions after 15 weeks.
- Healthcare providers administering such abortions are directly affected, potentially facing legal and financial penalties.
- The national impact varies by state due to existing differing laws on abortion, causing disparate effects across the country.
- Some individuals indirectly affected might include partners or families of the pregnant women involved, but they are less directly impacted by the legal aspects of this policy.
Simulated Interviews
Healthcare provider (Detroit, MI)
Age: 30 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This bill restricts my ability to provide necessary medical care to my patients.
- I'm worried about the legal implications and possible penalties.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 4 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 4 | 6 |
Retail worker (Austin, TX)
Age: 25 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm concerned about potential health risks if I can't access a safe procedure past 15 weeks.
- This limits my choices without considering my personal situation.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 4 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 7 |
Lawyer (Jackson, MS)
Age: 40 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This bill could erode women's rights to choose and access healthcare.
- Concerned about the precedent this sets for other rights.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 7 |
Tech worker (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 35 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I support decisions that prioritize my partner's health and choices.
- Legislation shouldn't dictate personal medical decisions.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Surgeon (Atlanta, GA)
Age: 50 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 15.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This bill could limit necessary medical interventions.
- Legal risks are concerning for me and my practice.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 7 |
Teacher (Des Moines, IA)
Age: 45 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I believe this bill aligns with protecting life.
- Feels conflicted about potential exceptions.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Retired nurse (New York, NY)
Age: 60 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 8.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Legislation like this doesn't consider all health factors involved in later-term pregnancies.
- I'm worried about the trend towards more restrictive policies.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 8 |
Graduate student (Boulder, CO)
Age: 28 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 7.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy infringes on personal rights and healthcare access.
- I'm worried about the chilling effect on healthcare providers.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Social worker (Seattle, WA)
Age: 33 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 4.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Policies like these could force parents into difficult situations.
- Social support systems could be strained by unintended pregnancies.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Journalist (Phoenix, AZ)
Age: 29 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy could lead to major shifts in national discourse on healthcare rights.
- There's a risk of increased polarized viewpoints.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $100000000 (Low: $50000000, High: $200000000)
Year 2: $100000000 (Low: $50000000, High: $200000000)
Year 3: $105000000 (Low: $52500000, High: $210000000)
Year 5: $110000000 (Low: $55000000, High: $220000000)
Year 10: $120000000 (Low: $60000000, High: $240000000)
Year 100: $200000000 (Low: $100000000, High: $400000000)
Key Considerations
- The enforcement of this law would involve significant costs related to legal proceedings and compliance monitoring.
- Healthcare providers may need to adjust practices, increasing administrative compliance efforts and communication with legal advisors.
- The impact on healthcare costs due to changes in abortion access may vary significantly across states.