Policy Impact Analysis - 117/S/4840

Bill Overview

Title: Protecting Pain-Capable Unborn Children from Late-Term Abortions Act

Description: This bill establishes a new criminal offense for performing or attempting to perform an abortion if the probable gestational age of the fetus is 15 weeks or more. A violator is subject to criminal penalties—a fine, a prison term of up to five years, or both. The bill provides exceptions for an abortion (1) that is necessary to save the life of the pregnant woman, or (2) when the pregnancy is the result of rape or incest. A physician who performs or attempts to perform an abortion under an exception must comply with specified requirements. A woman who undergoes a prohibited abortion may not be prosecuted for violating or conspiring to violate the provisions of this bill.

Sponsors: Sen. Graham, Lindsey [R-SC]

Target Audience

Population: Pregnant women worldwide

Estimated Size: 3000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Healthcare provider (Detroit, MI)

Age: 30 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This bill restricts my ability to provide necessary medical care to my patients.
  • I'm worried about the legal implications and possible penalties.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 6 7
Year 3 5 7
Year 5 5 7
Year 10 4 6
Year 20 4 6

Retail worker (Austin, TX)

Age: 25 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm concerned about potential health risks if I can't access a safe procedure past 15 weeks.
  • This limits my choices without considering my personal situation.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 4 5
Year 2 4 5
Year 3 4 6
Year 5 5 6
Year 10 6 7
Year 20 6 7

Lawyer (Jackson, MS)

Age: 40 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This bill could erode women's rights to choose and access healthcare.
  • Concerned about the precedent this sets for other rights.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 6 7
Year 3 6 7
Year 5 6 7
Year 10 6 7
Year 20 6 7

Tech worker (San Francisco, CA)

Age: 35 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I support decisions that prioritize my partner's health and choices.
  • Legislation shouldn't dictate personal medical decisions.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 8
Year 2 7 8
Year 3 7 8
Year 5 7 8
Year 10 8 8
Year 20 8 8

Surgeon (Atlanta, GA)

Age: 50 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 15.0 years

Commonness: 2/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This bill could limit necessary medical interventions.
  • Legal risks are concerning for me and my practice.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 5 7
Year 3 5 7
Year 5 5 7
Year 10 5 7
Year 20 5 7

Teacher (Des Moines, IA)

Age: 45 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I believe this bill aligns with protecting life.
  • Feels conflicted about potential exceptions.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 6 6
Year 20 6 6

Retired nurse (New York, NY)

Age: 60 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 8.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Legislation like this doesn't consider all health factors involved in later-term pregnancies.
  • I'm worried about the trend towards more restrictive policies.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 8
Year 2 7 8
Year 3 7 8
Year 5 6 8
Year 10 6 8
Year 20 6 8

Graduate student (Boulder, CO)

Age: 28 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 7.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy infringes on personal rights and healthcare access.
  • I'm worried about the chilling effect on healthcare providers.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 6 7
Year 3 6 7
Year 5 6 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 7 7

Social worker (Seattle, WA)

Age: 33 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 4.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Policies like these could force parents into difficult situations.
  • Social support systems could be strained by unintended pregnancies.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 6
Year 2 5 6
Year 3 5 6
Year 5 5 6
Year 10 6 6
Year 20 6 6

Journalist (Phoenix, AZ)

Age: 29 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy could lead to major shifts in national discourse on healthcare rights.
  • There's a risk of increased polarized viewpoints.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 7 7

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $100000000 (Low: $50000000, High: $200000000)

Year 2: $100000000 (Low: $50000000, High: $200000000)

Year 3: $105000000 (Low: $52500000, High: $210000000)

Year 5: $110000000 (Low: $55000000, High: $220000000)

Year 10: $120000000 (Low: $60000000, High: $240000000)

Year 100: $200000000 (Low: $100000000, High: $400000000)

Key Considerations