Policy Impact Analysis - 117/S/4812

Bill Overview

Title: Fire Sale Loophole Closing Act

Description: This bill imposes restrictions on the transfer of business inventory firearms by a firearms importer, manufacturer, or dealer whose license is revoked or denied. An individual who violates the restrictions is subject to criminal penalties—a fine, prison term of up to one year (or five years if the violation was willful), or both.

Sponsors: Sen. Booker, Cory A. [D-NJ]

Target Audience

Population: firearms importers, manufacturers, and dealers with revoked or denied licenses

Estimated Size: 130000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

firearms dealer (Texas)

Age: 52 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy negatively affects my already struggling business by limiting my ability to sell remaining inventory.
  • I understand the need for regulation but feel there are more pressing areas to target.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 7
Year 2 5 7
Year 3 5 6
Year 5 4 6
Year 10 4 5
Year 20 4 5

social worker (Illinois)

Age: 35 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I believe this policy is a step in the right direction towards reducing illegal firearm circulation.
  • Closing loopholes like this could prevent firearms from ending up on the streets.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 8 6

firearms manufacturer (Florida)

Age: 45 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy could limit the market for my collectible firearms inventory, which is mostly operating on thin margins already.
  • Policy might come across as overly punitive without due process for reinstatement.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 8
Year 2 6 8
Year 3 5 8
Year 5 5 7
Year 10 5 7
Year 20 5 6

activist (California)

Age: 28 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I support any measure that restricts the flow of guns, especially those that are not managed under federal regulations.
  • This policy seems necessary but perhaps lacks the teeth without broader measures.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 6 5
Year 5 6 5
Year 10 7 5
Year 20 8 5

retired law enforcement (Missouri)

Age: 60 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I've seen firsthand the consequences of unregulated firearms falling into the wrong hands.
  • This bill adds another layer of security ensuring licensed dealers remain accountable.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 8 7
Year 20 9 7

gun shop owner (Nevada)

Age: 50 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I worry about the impacts on my business and on my ability to provide for my family.
  • These policies are made in a vacuum without understanding on-ground realities.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 8
Year 2 6 8
Year 3 5 7
Year 5 5 7
Year 10 4 6
Year 20 4 6

policy researcher (New York)

Age: 32 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The policy is a targeted approach addressing the responsibilities of the firearms industry.
  • Evidence-based laws like this can produce long-term safety benefits.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 8 6
Year 20 9 6

firearms importer (Ohio)

Age: 39 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The restrictions could strangle my business. I rely heavily on the ability to move inventory quickly.
  • We need a balance between regulations and operational feasibility.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 7
Year 2 5 7
Year 3 4 6
Year 5 4 6
Year 10 4 6
Year 20 4 5

college student (Oregon)

Age: 24 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 9/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Though not directly affected, I feel safer knowing there are stricter rules around firearm deals.
  • It shows commitment to public safety.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 6 5
Year 5 6 5
Year 10 7 5
Year 20 7 5

firearms enthusiast (Virginia)

Age: 58 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • These types of regulations don't really affect me directly, as I'm not in the business.
  • Overall, I worry about overreach but see the need to close loopholes.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 7 7

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $8000000 (Low: $6000000, High: $10000000)

Year 2: $8100000 (Low: $6100000, High: $10100000)

Year 3: $8200000 (Low: $6200000, High: $10200000)

Year 5: $8400000 (Low: $6400000, High: $10400000)

Year 10: $9000000 (Low: $6800000, High: $11200000)

Year 100: $15000000 (Low: $10000000, High: $20000000)

Key Considerations