Policy Impact Analysis - 117/S/4755

Bill Overview

Title: A bill to amend the Federal Land Policy and Management Act of 1976 to ensure that ranchers who have grazing agreements on national grasslands are treated the same as permittees on other Federal land.

Description: This bill applies terms and conditions for grazing leases and permits currently applicable to land in national forests to all National Forest System land.

Sponsors: Sen. Thune, John [R-SD]

Target Audience

Population: Ranchers with grazing agreements on national grasslands

Estimated Size: 500000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Rancher (Montana)

Age: 45 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm glad they're standardizing the grazing permits.
  • It should make it easier for us to plan our yearly grazing without worrying about conflicting rules.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 7
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 9 7
Year 10 9 6
Year 20 8 6

Environmental Scientist (Wyoming)

Age: 52 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 2/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I worry that the application of these terms might lead to less stringent environmental protections.
  • We need to ensure that grazing does not harm biodiversity.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 6
Year 2 5 6
Year 3 5 6
Year 5 5 6
Year 10 5 5
Year 20 5 5

Farmer (Colorado)

Age: 30 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Standardized rules should help make our business more predictable.
  • If done right, it’ll level the playing field for all ranchers.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 7
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 8 6
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 7 6

Retired Rancher (Texas)

Age: 60 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • It's a step towards fairness among ranchers.
  • I hope younger ranchers benefit from this stability like I wish I did.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 6 6
Year 20 6 6

Ranch Hand (New Mexico)

Age: 40 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy could provide more job security if ranches stabilize their operations.
  • Flexibility in leases would help us plan better as workers.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 6 5
Year 5 5 4
Year 10 5 4
Year 20 5 4

Rancher (California)

Age: 28 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 4

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 2/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Any simplification of permits is welcomed as we deal with overwhelming paperwork.
  • This could make ranching more viable for younger generations.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 4
Year 2 7 4
Year 3 7 4
Year 5 8 3
Year 10 8 3
Year 20 9 2

Logger (Idaho)

Age: 33 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • It might indirectly affect timber sales if the environment or economy shifts, but my job isn’t directly involved.
  • Potentially, long-term changes could benefit natural resources management.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 7 7

Economist (Nevada)

Age: 50 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Economic stability is likely, though impacts are hard to quantify.
  • Standardized leases could promote investment in ranching operations.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 8 8
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 9 7
Year 20 9 7

Local Business Owner (South Dakota)

Age: 38 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Simplifying grazing permits is good for business.
  • It could stabilize our customer base if ranchers do better long-term.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 8 6
Year 3 8 6
Year 5 8 5
Year 10 8 5
Year 20 7 5

Wildlife Biologist (Arizona)

Age: 29 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 2.0 years

Commonness: 2/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Any policy affecting grazing needs to consider wildlife impacts.
  • It's crucial to balance ranching needs with conserving natural habitats.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 6 7
Year 3 6 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 7 7

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $50000000 (Low: $30000000, High: $70000000)

Year 2: $51000000 (Low: $30500000, High: $71500000)

Year 3: $52020000 (Low: $31200000, High: $72800000)

Year 5: $54080000 (Low: $32400000, High: $75600000)

Year 10: $59000000 (Low: $35000000, High: $83000000)

Year 100: $70000000 (Low: $42000000, High: $98000000)

Key Considerations