Bill Overview
Title: Solidify Iran Sanctions Act of 2022
Description: This bill permanently extends certain sanctions against Iran.
Sponsors: Sen. Scott, Tim [R-SC]
Target Audience
Population: People affected by the Solidify Iran Sanctions Act of 2022
Estimated Size: 1000000
- Sanctions against a country typically affect the residents of that country directly due to economic constraints.
- The sanctions could also impact people outside of Iran who trade or have economic relationships with Iranian entities.
- Globally, businesses and individuals involved in international trade with Iran may be affected.
Reasoning
- The policy predominantly affects Iranian Americans, or those engaged in business or familial relations with Iran, due to restrictions on trade and financial transactions.
- Sanctions may have little to no direct impact on average Americans with no ties to Iran or its economy.
- We need to capture a range of Cantril wellbeing scores to see if the policy positively, negatively, or neutrally impacts individuals based on their specific circumstances.
- The interviews should include a mix of people with high and low exposure to potential impacts of the policy to gauge its varying influence across the population.
Simulated Interviews
Trader (California)
Age: 38 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The sanctions are likely to hurt my business because they could limit my ability to trade with Iranian partners.
- I hope there are some provisions or loopholes for small business owners like myself.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 4 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
IT Consultant (New York)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I may lose some business if my clients in Iran are negatively impacted by these sanctions.
- It's frustrating as my projects help improve their local technology sectors.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Humanitarian Worker (Texas)
Age: 30 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 15.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The sanctions could make it difficult for us to provide humanitarian aid as efficiently.
- I worry about the people we strive to help and if this will impact our efforts to support them.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Small Business Owner (Florida)
Age: 50 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I don't think the sanctions will affect my business directly.
- I'm more concerned about the global economic climate in general.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Retired (Illinois)
Age: 65 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm concerned about how this will affect my family back in Iran.
- I was hoping to travel to visit them soon, and this could complicate matters.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Software Developer (Washington)
Age: 28 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 15/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm not directly impacted by the sanctions as my work is purely domestic.
- While I understand the need for these measures, they don't touch my day-to-day life.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
University Professor (Michigan)
Age: 56 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 9
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The sanctions may hinder my research as access to resources and communications become restricted.
- This may also affect collaborative projects with colleagues in Iran.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Grad Student (Oregon)
Age: 24 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy might give me more resources for my case studies on Iran, but it could hurt field work opportunities.
- I'm curious about future diplomatic relations and how it will affect my career information.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Real Estate Agent (Georgia)
Age: 40 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I don't see any immediate effects of the sanctions on my job.
- Real estate is more influenced by domestic economic factors for us.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Financial Analyst (Ohio)
Age: 29 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- My work will definitely be impacted as it restricts financial transactions with Iranian markets.
- I'll need to adjust our client strategies to keep a consistent flow of business.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $5000000 (Low: $3000000, High: $7000000)
Year 2: $5000000 (Low: $3000000, High: $7000000)
Year 3: $5000000 (Low: $3000000, High: $7000000)
Year 5: $5000000 (Low: $3000000, High: $7000000)
Year 10: $5000000 (Low: $3000000, High: $7000000)
Year 100: $5000000 (Low: $3000000, High: $7000000)
Key Considerations
- The enforcement cost and complexity of sanctions are considerable but may deter economic activities perceived as threatening.
- Impact on U.S. businesses with ties to Iran could lead to adverse domestic economic effects.
- Long-term outcomes are uncertain, depending on international diplomacy and potential shifts in global trade dynamics.