Policy Impact Analysis - 117/S/4745

Bill Overview

Title: Spotted Wing Abatement Trust Act of 2022

Description: This bill directs the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service to establish a fund for research relating to, and activities to mitigate the negative effects of, spotted wing drosophila. Spotted wing drosophila is an invasive species from East Asia that has caused significant damage to many valuable fruit crops in the United States, including raspberries, blackberries, blueberries, strawberries, peaches, plums, and cherries.

Sponsors: Sen. Peters, Gary C. [D-MI]

Target Audience

Population: People involved in the agricultural production and consumption of affected fruits

Estimated Size: 20000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Fruit farmer (Fresno, California)

Age: 45 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I am hopeful that the research funding will lead to effective methods to control the spotted wing drosophila. It's been tough dealing with the crop losses.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 5
Year 2 7 5
Year 3 8 4
Year 5 8 4
Year 10 9 4
Year 20 9 3

Agricultural researcher (Midland, Michigan)

Age: 34 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy is a strong step in supporting necessary research to curb the damage caused by invasive species like the spotted wing drosophila.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 8 6
Year 3 8 6
Year 5 8 6
Year 10 8 5
Year 20 7 5

Blueberry farm owner (Raleigh, North Carolina)

Age: 50 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 4

Duration of Impact: 15.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • We desperately need this sort of policy to protect our crops. The damage from the pest has been significant, affecting our work and income.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 4
Year 2 6 4
Year 3 7 3
Year 5 8 3
Year 10 8 2
Year 20 7 2

Grocery store manager (Portland, Oregon)

Age: 29 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I think the policy might eventually stabilize supply, but I don't see much immediate impact on grocery stores.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 6 5

Cherry farm owner (Yakima, Washington)

Age: 62 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 4

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This might be beneficial for future crops, but it’s crucial it delivers results soon given my dwindling yields.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 4
Year 2 6 4
Year 3 7 3
Year 5 7 3
Year 10 6 3
Year 20 5 2

Agricultural Policy Analyst (San Francisco, California)

Age: 48 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm optimistic about the long-term benefits of the SWAT Act for research and mitigation, though results won't be swift.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 8 6
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 7 5

Fruit distribution manager (Miami, Florida)

Age: 38 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • With the right outcomes from this policy, we might see improvements in pricing consistency and supply chain stability.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 7 5
Year 20 6 5

Fruit farm worker (Phoenix, Arizona)

Age: 30 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 9/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • If the policy succeeds, it could mean more stable jobs and better yields in the farms I work on.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 5
Year 2 7 5
Year 3 8 4
Year 5 8 4
Year 10 9 3
Year 20 8 3

Small fruit producer (Santa Fe, New Mexico)

Age: 55 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Local markets depend on affordable and quality produce, and this policy might help secure our product quality over time.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 7 5
Year 3 7 5
Year 5 8 5
Year 10 8 4
Year 20 7 3

Urban consumer (Seattle, Washington)

Age: 41 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 9/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm not directly impacted, but keeping these fruits available and affordable is important for consumers like me.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 8 8
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 8 6
Year 20 7 5

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $80000000 (Low: $60000000, High: $100000000)

Year 2: $82000000 (Low: $62000000, High: $102000000)

Year 3: $84000000 (Low: $64000000, High: $104000000)

Year 5: $88000000 (Low: $68000000, High: $108000000)

Year 10: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)

Year 100: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)

Key Considerations