Bill Overview
Title: Western Balkans Democracy and Prosperity Act
Description: This bill addresses economic and political development in the Western Balkans (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia), including by supporting anti-corruption and trade initiatives.
Sponsors: Sen. Shaheen, Jeanne [D-NH]
Target Audience
Population: People in the Western Balkans
Estimated Size: 1000
- The Western Balkans consist of Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia.
- The total population of these countries combined is approximately 18 million people as of recent estimates.
- The bill targets economic and political development, which can affect a wide range of societal sectors including government, business, and civil society, potentially impacting the majority of inhabitants in these nations.
- Given the focus on anti-corruption and trade initiatives, the bill could particularly impact individuals involved in business and government sectors.
- Trade improvements potentially affect consumers and business owners broadly in these countries.
Reasoning
- The Western Balkans Democracy and Prosperity Act primarily targets development within the Western Balkans, but as a foreign policy move by the U.S., its direct impact on U.S. citizens will be limited.
- Given the policy's focus on anti-corruption and trade initiatives, direct impacts on Americans will be more pronounced among those with economic ties or specific interests in the region, such as businesspersons, diplomats, and NGO workers.
- Only a small subset of the American population, likely numbering around 1,000 based on preliminary estimates, has significant involvement with the Western Balkans where the effects would be most perceptible.
- These individuals may experience changes in job opportunities, security of trade partnerships, or ease of conducting business due to regional shifts resulting from the policy.
- Considering the budget and the size of the target population, the policy is expected to have modest or indirect effects on Americans, affecting those whose work involves the Balkans most notably through enhanced stability or trade opportunities.
Simulated Interviews
Foreign Service Officer (Washington, D.C.)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I believe that this policy could support stabilizing the region, which is crucial for our diplomatic efforts.
- Improving economic conditions could lead to more consistent and reliable partnerships.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 7 |
Financial Analyst (New York, NY)
Age: 32 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy may lead to better transparency and economic opportunities in the Balkans, which could be beneficial for investment.
- Reduced corruption would improve our risk assessments for investing in the region.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 6 |
NGO Worker (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 28 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 4.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Any support for anti-corruption is positive, however, implementation and follow-through are critical.
- More stable governance in the Balkans means we can better support grassroots initiatives without interruptions.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Business Owner (Chicago, IL)
Age: 52 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 6.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Better trade conditions would directly help my business by reducing tariffs and increasing reliability.
- Healthy economic environments in my trading partners' countries also help their consumers.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 8 |
Academic Researcher (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 41 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy could provide a case study of international involvement in order to bolster democratic institutions.
- It's important for long-term scholarly analyses and potential collaboration with local universities.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Retired Diplomat (Miami, FL)
Age: 60 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- It's always challenging to predict effective implementation of such policies.
- However, improved stability would aid in maintaining peaceful relations, even post-retirement observations.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Tech Entrepreneur (Boston, MA)
Age: 36 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Access to markets in the Balkans could become much easier with reduced corruption and better trade policies.
- Though my business focus is tech, international stability always helps my planning.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 5 |
Cultural Exchange Coordinator (Austin, TX)
Age: 30 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Economic and democratic support could lead to more robust cultural exchanges.
- Friendlier international relations enhance the effectiveness of my work.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Journalist (New York, NY)
Age: 25 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy's success would provide much-needed stories of diplomatic efforts in Europe's peripheral regions.
- American interest in Balkan stories might increase with better relations.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Import Manager (Portland, OR)
Age: 50 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 7.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Less corruption and better trade conditions could make my work run smoother.
- I hope this translates to enhanced business reliability and partnerships.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 7 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $500000000 (Low: $375000000, High: $625000000)
Year 2: $500000000 (Low: $375000000, High: $625000000)
Year 3: $500000000 (Low: $375000000, High: $625000000)
Year 5: $500000000 (Low: $375000000, High: $625000000)
Year 10: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 100: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Key Considerations
- The geopolitical significance of the Western Balkans region and its history of instability suggests that long-term investment might have wide-ranging benefits for U.S. interests.
- Success of the policy may depend on the political will and cooperation of Western Balkan governments, which can vary significantly.
- Potential changes in U.S. foreign policy priorities could impact the sustained implementation and funding of the policy initiatives.