Policy Impact Analysis - 117/S/4736

Bill Overview

Title: Arctic Commitment Act

Description: This bill expands a variety of Arctic-focused provisions pertaining to national security, shipping, and trade. For example, the bill directs the Department of Transportation (DOT) to establish the Arctic Shipping Federal Advisory Committee to advise DOT on matters related to Arctic maritime transportation, including Arctic seaway development. It also requires the Department of the Navy to ensure that the Port of Nome in Alaska is usable for the implementation of the National Strategy for the Arctic Region and military service strategies for the Arctic. Additionally, the U.S. Coast Guard and Navy must jointly submit to Congress a report that outlines the requirements to establish a persistent, year-round presence of the Navy and Coast Guard in the Arctic region, including at the Port of Nome and any other deepwater port that would facilitate such a presence. The bill also requires the Committee on Maritime Transportation System to submit to Congress a report that describes the control and influence of the Russian Federation on shipping in the Arctic and includes a plan for eliminating or preventing a Russian monopoly on shipping in the region to enable an increased U.S. presence in the Arctic shipping domain. Further, the bill expresses the sense of Congress that (1) Arctic countries are important partners of the United States, and (2) the United States International Development Finance Corporation should make investments in Arctic countries to facilitate technologies that contribute to energy security and sustainable opportunities for indigenous groups.

Sponsors: Sen. Murkowski, Lisa [R-AK]

Target Audience

Population: individuals living within or reliant on the Arctic region

Estimated Size: 72000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Local Business Owner (Nome, Alaska)

Age: 34 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I am hopeful about the economic opportunities but concerned about increased traffic and possible disruption to local life.
  • The policy has good intentions but might overlook local voices in decision-making.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 8 7
Year 20 7 7

Defense Analyst (Washington D.C.)

Age: 45 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • For national security, this act is crucial to counter foreign influence in the Arctic.
  • I value increased military presence, which will secure our trade routes.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 6 5

Coast Guard Officer (Juneau, Alaska)

Age: 28 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 15.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The new duty assignments in the Arctic will affect my family life, but it is necessary for our country's mission.
  • I am committed to the enhanced strategic presence despite personal sacrifices.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 5 5
Year 3 6 5
Year 5 6 5
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 7 6

Maritime Trade Consultant (New York, NY)

Age: 51 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 7.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The act opens new avenues for U.S. commerce if managed efficiently.
  • Preventing a foreign monopoly is crucial for our trade interests.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 9 8
Year 5 9 8
Year 10 9 7
Year 20 8 7

Indigenous Rights Advocate (Nome, Alaska)

Age: 62 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • While economic investments are welcome, it is essential that they do not disrupt our traditional way of life.
  • Indigenous voices must be part of development processes to ensure sustainability.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 6 5
Year 5 7 5
Year 10 8 6
Year 20 8 6

Environmental Policy Researcher (Los Angeles, CA)

Age: 40 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 9/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The policy needs a stronger environmental focus given the Arctic's vulnerability.
  • Balancing strategic interests with sustainability is crucial.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 6 5

Logistics Coordinator (Anchorage, Alaska)

Age: 38 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 8.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The expansion of Arctic trade routes is an opportunity, but local infrastructure must keep up.
  • It's vital for the community to benefit from increased logistics activities.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 8 7
Year 20 7 6

Retired Naval Officer (Seattle, WA)

Age: 65 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 15.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Enhancing military presence is essential for geopolitical stability.
  • This act rightly focuses on securing Arctic interests.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 8 7
Year 20 8 6

Tech Entrepreneur (Boston, MA)

Age: 29 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The act's investment focus aligns with my business goals for sustainable innovation.
  • I'd like to see more inclusion of tech startups in these discussions.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 8 6
Year 5 8 6
Year 10 9 7
Year 20 9 7

Port Authority Manager (Fairbanks, Alaska)

Age: 54 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm excited to see the expansion and modernization of our facilities. It's overdue.
  • Concerns about increased workload and maintaining efficient operations.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 9 7
Year 10 9 7
Year 20 8 6

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $40000000 (Low: $35000000, High: $45000000)

Year 2: $37000000 (Low: $32000000, High: $42000000)

Year 3: $38000000 (Low: $33000000, High: $43000000)

Year 5: $39000000 (Low: $34000000, High: $44000000)

Year 10: $40000000 (Low: $35000000, High: $45000000)

Year 100: $45000000 (Low: $40000000, High: $50000000)

Key Considerations