Bill Overview
Title: Trooper Werner Foerster and Frank Connor Justice Act
Description: This bill directs the Department of State, in coordination with the Department of Justice, to raise the issue of fugitives from the United States receiving safe haven in Cuba as part of bilateral conversations with Cuba. The bill prohibits amounts in the International Narcotics Control and Law Enforcement account from being used in Cuba until Cuba meets conditions related to fugitives and economic activity.
Sponsors: Sen. Menendez, Robert [D-NJ]
Target Audience
Population: People in Cuba
Estimated Size: 1000
- The bill impacts those involved in bilateral discussions between the US and Cuba, particularly government officials.
- Fugitives who have found safe haven in Cuba might be directly affected since the US aims to address their status.
- US law enforcement officials and agencies focused on international fugitives and narcotics control will be involved.
- Indirectly, the Cuban government and people might be affected by the changes in economic aid or discussion dynamics due to this bill.
Reasoning
- The policy affects primarily U.S. government officials involved in international relations and law enforcement with an interest in extradition agreements with Cuba.
- Since there are only around 70-100 fugitives in Cuba, direct impact is minimal for the general U.S. populace.
- The overall budget is allocated primarily to diplomatic missions which may not trickle down as a direct economic impact to civilians in either country.
- It will be essential to focus on officials and persons indirectly affected by political shifts rather than seeking a broader population perspective, as the act is highly specialized.
Simulated Interviews
State Department Official (Washington D.C.)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 20.0 years
Commonness: 1/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I believe this policy is crucial for diplomatic leverage over Cuba.
- The policy could help us bring fugitives to justice, a long-standing issue.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
U.S. Customs and Border Protection Officer (Miami, Florida)
Age: 36 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This could potentially improve our operations if Cuba starts cooperating.
- I'm wary about the overall success though.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
International Affairs Analyst (Houston, Texas)
Age: 29 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy has some interesting potential impacts on regional diplomacy.
- I'm skeptical about the feasibility of its implementation given historical context.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
Retired Law Enforcement Officer (New Jersey)
Age: 52 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- It's about time something is being done about U.S. fugitives hiding in Cuba.
- I'm hopeful but not holding my breath for immediate results.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Political Commentator (New York, New York)
Age: 40 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Politically this is a positive move to rectify past issues.
- Depends significantly on Cuba's willingness to cooperate.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Expatriate living in Cuba (Los Angeles, California)
Age: 32 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- If successful, the policy might change U.S-Cuba dynamics permanently.
- Hesitant on how it impacts us on the ground here.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Cuban-American Activist (Miami, Florida)
Age: 60 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- A necessary move, but economic sanctions worry me greatly.
- This feels more punitive than helpful on a humanitarian level.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
Law School Graduate (Chicago, Illinois)
Age: 25 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 1.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Interesting approach which might create case precedents.
- Pragmatically, looking at both diplomatic wins and legal impacts.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
International Logistics Manager (Atlanta, Georgia)
Age: 48 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 0.5 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Indirectly impacts our business in terms of regulatory adjustments.
- Limited impact expected unless trade dynamics change significantly.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Tech Startup Founder (San Diego, California)
Age: 28 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This could open up technological collaborations once law enforcement dialogues are strengthened.
- However, a minor policy doesn't ensure market expansion.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $20000000 (Low: $15000000, High: $25000000)
Year 2: $20000000 (Low: $15000000, High: $25000000)
Year 3: $20000000 (Low: $15000000, High: $25000000)
Year 5: $20000000 (Low: $15000000, High: $25000000)
Year 10: $20000000 (Low: $15000000, High: $25000000)
Year 100: $20000000 (Low: $15000000, High: $25000000)
Key Considerations
- The small number of fugitives implies the policy may not notably alter broader US-Cuba relations.
- Execution involves diplomatic efforts, potentially adding complexity to existing foreign relations initiatives.
- Prohibiting funding shifts spending but may not translate into large savings as funds could be redirected.