Policy Impact Analysis - 117/S/4703

Bill Overview

Title: Securing America’s Land from Foreign Interference Act

Description: This bill requires the President to take actions as necessary to prohibit members of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) (or foreign individuals or entities acting on behalf of the CCP) from purchasing real estate located in the United States. The bill also modifies an existing civil penalty for failing to satisfy a reporting requirement relating to a foreign individual or entity that acquires or transfers an interest in U.S. agricultural land. Under this bill, the civil penalty for failing to report the required information to the Department of Agriculture must be at least 10% of the fair market value of the relevant interest in agricultural land.

Sponsors: Sen. Cotton, Tom [R-AR]

Target Audience

Population: Global potential real estate investors and affiliates of the Chinese Communist Party

Estimated Size: 2000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Real Estate Agent (New York City, NY)

Age: 45 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy could reduce my international clientele which has been growing over the past years.
  • I am concerned about the extra complications and potential decline in demand from foreign investors.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 6 7
Year 3 5 7
Year 5 5 7
Year 10 4 6
Year 20 4 6

Tech Entrepreneur (San Francisco, CA)

Age: 30 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I don't think this policy directly affects me.
  • It seems more like a political move rather than something impacting local residents right away.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 8 8
Year 5 8 8
Year 10 8 8
Year 20 8 8

Farmer (Rural Iowa)

Age: 55 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The increase in penalties and reporting may deter foreign leases or make it cumbersome.
  • However, it might protect local interests in the long run.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 6 5
Year 10 5 5
Year 20 5 4

International Business Consultant (Los Angeles, CA)

Age: 40 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 9

Duration of Impact: 8.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy will require a re-evaluation of our investment strategies with Chinese partners.
  • On a personal level, my existing real estate dealings might get disrupted.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 9
Year 2 7 9
Year 3 7 9
Year 5 7 9
Year 10 6 8
Year 20 6 8

School Teacher (Atlanta, GA)

Age: 60 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 12/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I don't foresee this having any direct impact on my life or plans.
  • It's a bit reassuring knowing agricultural and residential lands might be more protected.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 7 7

Real Estate Developer (Houston, TX)

Age: 32 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This could make securing capital more challenging if foreign funding is restricted.
  • Might have to pivot to other markets for financing.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 6
Year 2 5 6
Year 3 5 6
Year 5 5 6
Year 10 5 5
Year 20 4 5

Attorney specializing in international law (Chicago, IL)

Age: 50 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 7.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The policy might increase my workload initially due to compliance queries.
  • Long-term impacts could reduce my client base interested in U.S. real estate.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 6 7
Year 3 6 7
Year 5 5 7
Year 10 5 7
Year 20 5 7

Environmental Scientist (Seattle, WA)

Age: 28 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 9/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy might prioritize local conservation efforts and limit foreign commercial interests.
  • Overall, my work doesn't intersect with these aspects heavily.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 8 8
Year 5 8 8
Year 10 8 8
Year 20 8 8

Retired (Miami, FL)

Age: 65 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The policy doesn't really impact my real estate dealings.
  • Most of my buyers and tenants are local, so I'm unaffected.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 7 7

Real Estate Investor (Boston, MA)

Age: 35 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The policy will close some doors to properties previously easy to access through my network.
  • But it might open market opportunities with reduced foreign competition.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 7 8
Year 5 7 8
Year 10 7 8
Year 20 7 8

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $50000000 (Low: $30000000, High: $70000000)

Year 2: $52000000 (Low: $32000000, High: $72000000)

Year 3: $54000000 (Low: $34000000, High: $74000000)

Year 5: $58000000 (Low: $38000000, High: $78000000)

Year 10: $65000000 (Low: $45000000, High: $85000000)

Year 100: $100000000 (Low: $75000000, High: $150000000)

Key Considerations