Bill Overview
Title: Taiwan Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act of 2022
Description: This bill authorizes the President to lend or lease defense articles to Taiwan for protection against potential Chinese military aggression and requires the President to establish expedited procedures for delivering loaned or leased defense articles to Taiwan.
Sponsors: Sen. Blackburn, Marsha [R-TN]
Target Audience
Population: People in Taiwan
Estimated Size: 197000
- The bill pertains to the defense and military capabilities of Taiwan.
- Any military aid or defense articles are likely to be utilized by Taiwan's armed forces.
- The purpose of the bill is to defend Taiwan against Chinese aggression, indicating potential impact on all citizens of Taiwan in the event of conflict.
- Taiwan's population is approximately 23.5 million people as of recent estimates.
- Defense and military support are indirect factors contributing to national security, likely impacting the wellbeing of all residents of Taiwan by enhancing national safety and security.
Reasoning
- This policy primarily affects U.S. citizens who have significant ties to Taiwan, including Taiwanese Americans and expatriates. Given that the U.S. population is over 330 million, these individuals represent a small portion but might have heightened concerns due to familial or economic connections.
- We need to consider the wider implications of U.S. foreign policy on global stability and national security interests.
- The wellbeing of Taiwanese Americans may vary depending on their perception of the policy's effectiveness in deterring aggression.
- Some individuals might not be directly affected at all, as this policy is more relevant to defense contractors or those working in related fields.
- Individuals advocating for global peace and stability might see the policy as beneficial indirectly contributing to their sense of security.
Simulated Interviews
Technology Investor (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 35 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I believe the policy strengthens Taiwan's position against potential aggression, which is important for my family living there.
- In the short term, it provides peace of mind knowing there is international support.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 4 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 4 |
Retired Military Officer (New York, NY)
Age: 60 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This act reinforces our strategic partnerships in Asia and ensures stability in the region.
- It's reassuring that efforts are being made to support allies.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 4 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 4 |
Software Engineer (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 29 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I feel more economically secure knowing there is stability through defense measures.
- This is more about my work's future and family's safety.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 4 |
University Professor (Boston, MA)
Age: 42 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy might escalate tensions with China, affecting regional stability.
- However, it is crucial for upholding democratic principles.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 4 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 4 |
Defense Contractor (Houston, TX)
Age: 50 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 9
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy will likely bolster my business interests due to increased demand for defense articles.
- It’s a positive development economically for my sector.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 10 | 9 |
| Year 2 | 10 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 10 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 5 |
Graduate Student (Chicago, IL)
Age: 23 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- While I understand the intention, I worry this policy may lead to more military escalation.
- I hope it remains purely defensive.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 4 |
| Year 20 | 4 | 4 |
Business Owner (Seattle, WA)
Age: 38 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Stability in Taiwan is crucial for my business operations.
- I see this policy as supportive of my long-term business plans.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 5 |
Non-Profit Executive (Washington, D.C.)
Age: 47 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I believe this policy could enhance regional security but must be handled diplomatically to avoid provocation.
- It reflects our long-term commitment to allies.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 4 |
Journalist (Raleigh, NC)
Age: 55 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Reporting on this act, I see the complexity and potential for friction, but it’s a significant statement of support for Taiwan's democracy.
- Time will tell the full impact.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 4 |
Healthcare Worker (San Diego, CA)
Age: 33 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Despite its potential benefits, I’m anxious about increased militarization in the Asia-Pacific region.
- Aid and healthcare will still be needed irrespective of defense policies.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 4 |
| Year 20 | 4 | 4 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $1500000000 (Low: $1000000000, High: $2500000000)
Year 2: $1500000000 (Low: $1000000000, High: $2500000000)
Year 3: $1500000000 (Low: $1000000000, High: $2500000000)
Year 5: $1500000000 (Low: $1000000000, High: $2500000000)
Year 10: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Year 100: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Key Considerations
- The strategic importance of Taiwan to U.S. foreign policy in Asia-Pacific region.
- Potential for increased geopolitical tensions and responses from China.
- Supply chain and logistical challenges in delivering defense articles quickly.