Policy Impact Analysis - 117/S/4651

Bill Overview

Title: A bill to amend the Energy Policy and Conservation Act to require the Secretary of Energy to stipulate, as a condition on the sale at auction of any petroleum products from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, that the petroleum products not be exported to certain countries, to prohibit such sales to certain state-owned entities, and for other purposes.

Description: This bill limits the sale and exportation of petroleum products (e.g., crude oil) from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). Specifically, the bill directs the Department of Energy (DOE) to require, as a condition of auction sales, that the petroleum products not be exported to countries that are designated as countries of particular concern for religious freedom under the International Religious Freedom Act of 1998. In addition, the bill establishes limits on auction sales of petroleum products from the SPR to state-owned entities if DOE determines that, as of the dates of the auctions, there are bans on, or the imposition of sanctions by the United States with respect to, the purchase of crude oil from countries. Under such circumstances, state-owned entities must certify that they have not purchased petroleum products from countries subject to such bans or sanctions while the bans or sanctions were in effect in order to be able to bid in auctions. If DOE determines state-owned entities participating in the auctions have purchased crude oil from such countries while the bans or sanctions were in effect, then DOE may not sell petroleum products from the SPR to such entities.

Sponsors: Sen. Barrasso, John [R-WY]

Target Audience

Population: People affected by limitations on exports and sales from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve

Estimated Size: 330000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Oil industry executive (Houston, TX)

Age: 45 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I think the policy might complicate international business deals and oil trade dynamics.
  • It might present opportunities but also risks for companies involved in domestic oil sales.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 8
Year 2 6 8
Year 3 6 8
Year 5 7 8
Year 10 8 7
Year 20 8 7

Small business owner, trucking industry (Des Moines, IA)

Age: 30 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Fluctuations in fuel prices could significantly impact my business operations and profitability.
  • I'm worried this policy could restrict fuel supply or increase costs.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 6
Year 2 5 6
Year 3 6 6
Year 5 6 5
Year 10 6 5
Year 20 7 4

Retired, former energy analyst (New York, NY)

Age: 65 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 1.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm intrigued to see how the policy impacts the global oil market.
  • Even if not directly impactful, it could shift market dynamics.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 6 7
Year 10 6 6
Year 20 5 5

Tech startup founder (San Francisco, CA)

Age: 28 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 2.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm more focused on potential indirect effects this policy might have on operating costs.
  • If energy prices rise, it could strain our startup's budget.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 7 8
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 7 6

Economist (Chicago, IL)

Age: 50 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The restriction on exports might provide interesting data on economic elasticity.
  • There's potential for a better understanding of oil dependency dynamics.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 9 7
Year 20 9 6

Environmental activist (Denver, CO)

Age: 40 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I support any measure that could potentially reduce our reliance on fossil fuels.
  • Though I doubt its long-term significance without further environmental policies.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 6 5
Year 20 5 4

Government policy advisor (Philadelphia, PA)

Age: 55 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 9

Duration of Impact: 7.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy could serve as a leverage tool in geopolitical contexts.
  • Interesting to see its effect on local and international levels.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 9 9
Year 2 9 9
Year 3 8 9
Year 5 8 8
Year 10 8 7
Year 20 8 7

Logistics manager (Atlanta, GA)

Age: 38 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 4.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Any significant change in oil supply chain can disrupt logistics planning.
  • Important to understand policy and logistical implications.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 6 7
Year 3 6 7
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 7 6

Oil rig operator (Midland, TX)

Age: 60 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 4.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Concerned that new restrictions might eventually impact job security.
  • Aim for policies that ensure both sustainability and economic benefits.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 7
Year 2 6 7
Year 3 6 7
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 7 6
Year 20 7 6

Public policy analyst (Los Angeles, CA)

Age: 48 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This could open discussions on balancing energy policies and consumer interests.
  • Curious to evaluate any shifts in domestic market equilibration.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 8 8
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 6 6

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $15000000 (Low: $10000000, High: $20000000)

Year 2: $15000000 (Low: $10000000, High: $20000000)

Year 3: $16000000 (Low: $11000000, High: $21000000)

Year 5: $17000000 (Low: $12000000, High: $22000000)

Year 10: $19000000 (Low: $14000000, High: $24000000)

Year 100: $30000000 (Low: $20000000, High: $40000000)

Key Considerations