Policy Impact Analysis - 117/S/4628

Bill Overview

Title: Combating Violent and Dangerous Crime Act

Description: This bill revises various statutes with respect to violent crimes and establishes new criminal offenses. For example, the bill (1) increases the statutory maximum penalty for carjacking, and (2) establishes enhanced criminal penalties for certain federal drug offenses involving the manufacture or distribution of candy-flavored controlled substances or similar products for minors.

Sponsors: Sen. Grassley, Chuck [R-IA]

Target Audience

Population: People involved in or affected by violent crime and drug-related offenses

Estimated Size: 2000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Unemployed (Chicago, IL)

Age: 25 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 4

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm worried about getting caught up in harsher penalties, even if I'm not directly involved in violent crime.
  • More police presence might make me feel safer, but also nervous.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 4 4
Year 2 3 3
Year 3 5 3
Year 5 6 4
Year 10 7 5
Year 20 8 5

Public School Teacher (San Francisco, CA)

Age: 40 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm supportive of anything that reduces the risk of students getting involved with drugs.
  • I hope the penalties work as a deterrent.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 8 6
Year 5 8 6
Year 10 8 6
Year 20 8 6

Small Business Owner (Houston, TX)

Age: 32 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I think harsher penalties could make the streets safer, which is good for my business.
  • Not sure if it'll affect my own life directly though.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 8 7
Year 20 9 7

Defense Attorney (New York, NY)

Age: 58 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Tougher laws might make my job harder, as clients could face more severe consequences.
  • I'm concerned about the potential for increased incarceration rates.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 5 5
Year 3 6 5
Year 5 6 5
Year 10 5 5
Year 20 5 5

College Student (Baltimore, MD)

Age: 20 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Harsher penalties might deter some, but I'm not sure it addresses root causes of crime.
  • I hope it makes my neighborhood safer though.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 6 5
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 8 7
Year 20 8 7

Farmer (Rural Alabama)

Age: 45 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 12/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I doubt this will affect us out here, but I'm all for keeping drugs away from kids.
  • I worry more about economic issues than crime.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 8 8
Year 5 8 8
Year 10 8 8
Year 20 8 8

Retired Police Officer (Miami, FL)

Age: 62 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm supportive of strong measures against violent crime.
  • This could improve my neighborhood's safety, which has seen better days.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 8 7
Year 20 8 7

Social Worker (Memphis, TN)

Age: 29 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Tougher laws might protect some kids, but we need more education and community support.
  • I support preventive measures over punitive ones.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 7 6
Year 10 8 6
Year 20 9 6

Tech Consultant (Los Angeles, CA)

Age: 50 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 9

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Crime isn't a big concern for me personally, but I worry about the broader societal impact.
  • I'm skeptical about the effectiveness of just increasing penalties.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 9 9
Year 2 9 9
Year 3 9 9
Year 5 9 9
Year 10 9 9
Year 20 9 9

Software Developer (Seattle, WA)

Age: 34 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 7.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I hope this deters youth from getting involved in crime, but I'm afraid it might push some into worse situations.
  • Prevention should be key, not just punishment.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 8 7
Year 20 8 7

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $50000000 (Low: $40000000, High: $60000000)

Year 2: $52000000 (Low: $42000000, High: $62000000)

Year 3: $54000000 (Low: $44000000, High: $64000000)

Year 5: $58000000 (Low: $47000000, High: $68000000)

Year 10: $65000000 (Low: $52000000, High: $78000000)

Year 100: $120000000 (Low: $96000000, High: $140000000)

Key Considerations