Bill Overview
Title: Next Generation Fuels Act of 2022
Description: This bill supports the use of biofuels (e.g., gasoline blended with ethanol) in vehicles, including by establishing a minimum octane standard for gasoline as well as making related biofuel requirements for vehicles, their fuels, and fuel infrastructure.
Sponsors: Sen. Grassley, Chuck [R-IA]
Target Audience
Population: People using gasoline and biofuels in vehicles
Estimated Size: 232000000
- The bill supports the use of biofuels, impacting those involved in the production, distribution, and sales of biofuels.
- Vehicle manufacturers must comply with new octane standards, which impacts their production processes and costs.
- Consumers who use gasoline will be purchasing fuel with a different composition, potentially affecting engine performance and fuel costs.
- The agriculture sector, especially corn farmers, could be impacted as ethanol is commonly derived from corn.
Reasoning
- The Next Generation Fuels Act impacts a widespread range of individuals and businesses, depending on multiple factors such as their involvement in biofuel production, the automotive industry, or as end consumers.
- Considering the scale, with over 230 million vehicles and 200 million drivers, the policy's impact can range from none to high depending on the proximity of their work and daily activity to the biofuel sector.
- The budget constraints indicate that while the policy will have some direct financial impacts on businesses, the broad societal impacts will not be large enough to see vast reductions or increases in wellbeing immediately, but rather gradual changes over time as the market adjusts.
Simulated Interviews
Corn farmer (Iowa)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I think the policy is a good step because it boosts demand for ethanol, which means more business for us corn farmers.
- I am a little worried about how the increased production requirements might affect my production costs, but overall it seems like a positive move.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 6 |
Biofuel industry worker (California)
Age: 34 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy is great news for the biofuel industry, it provides more job security.
- With higher demand for biofuels, I can expect potential career growth.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 7 |
Software engineer (New York)
Age: 28 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 15/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I don't think the policy will affect me much since I don't drive often.
- I'm curious if the ethanol in gas will affect my car's engine efficiency though.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Truck driver (Texas)
Age: 50 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm skeptical about how these biofuels will affect fuel prices.
- If it helps with fuel costs in the long run and doesn't affect performance, it's fine by me.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 5 |
Automotive engineer (Michigan)
Age: 62 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy introduces new engineering challenges but promotes innovation.
- It's stressful to adapt designs to meet new octane standards promptly.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
College student (Florida)
Age: 22 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 14/20
Statement of Opinion:
- As a student, I'm most concerned about fuel prices.
- If this leads to more affordable fuel, I'm all for it.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Gas station owner (Illinois)
Age: 38 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 7.0 years
Commonness: 9/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Introducing biofuels means I have to adjust my gas station offerings.
- Potentially more maintenance required if biofuels impact pumps.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Environmental advocate (Oregon)
Age: 29 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 9
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy aligns with my beliefs about reducing carbon emissions.
- While I personally drive an EV, promoting biofuels is a positive step for others.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 3 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
School teacher (Nebraska)
Age: 55 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 13/20
Statement of Opinion:
- If more ethanol means help for our agriculture community, I'm supportive.
- I hope it doesn't raise fuel prices in our rural region.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Mechanic (Ohio)
Age: 40 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I'm curious to see how the fuel changes affect engine maintenance.
- The policy could mean more business if engines require adjustments.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $120000000 (Low: $100000000, High: $140000000)
Year 2: $120000000 (Low: $100000000, High: $140000000)
Year 3: $120000000 (Low: $100000000, High: $140000000)
Year 5: $130000000 (Low: $110000000, High: $150000000)
Year 10: $150000000 (Low: $130000000, High: $170000000)
Year 100: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)
Key Considerations
- Technological impact on vehicle performance from new fuel standards.
- Environmental benefits and potential reductions in emissions due to increased biofuel usage.
- The transition period required for scaling up infrastructure and production capacities.