Bill Overview
Title: Countering Communist China’s Financing of Russia’s War on Ukraine Act
Description: This bill directs the President to impose sanctions on any entity that insures or registers a vessel engaged in the shipment or transshipment of any petroleum product or liquefied natural gas product from Russia to China. The sanctions terminate when Russia has withdrawn all military and paramilitary forces from Ukraine.
Sponsors: Sen. Rubio, Marco [R-FL]
Target Audience
Population: People and organizations involved in maritime oil and LNG trade between Russia and China
Estimated Size: 50000
- The bill focuses on sanctions related to the shipment of petroleum and LNG products from Russia to China.
- It targets entities that insure or register vessels involved in such shipments, which could be shipping companies, insurance companies, and registration bodies worldwide.
- Since the bill impacts shipments related to Russia and China, it concerns people and businesses in these two countries directly.
- Global oil and gas markets might also be affected, influencing energy prices and availability internationally.
- Employees of companies in the shipping, insurance, and energy sectors could be directly impacted if their business operations are curtailed due to the sanctions.
- Consumers of energy, globally, may see impacts on energy prices.
Reasoning
- The budget for the policy suggests it will broadly target entities that are involved in maritime oil and LNG trade between Russia and China. However, direct impact on individuals is likely to be indirect through changes in energy prices or shifts in the global markets that affect the US economy.
- Energy prices and availability influence various aspects of daily life and business operations in the US, so fluctuations due to the policy may affect people in myriad ways.
- Since the target population in the US is estimated to be about 50,000, interviews include diverse individuals such as people working in the shipping, insurance, and energy sectors, as well as general energy consumers.
Simulated Interviews
Oil company executive (Houston, TX)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy might complicate our supply chain logistics, potentially increasing costs.
- I support measures that deter conflicts, but it must be balanced against domestic economic interests.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Insurance company analyst (New York, NY)
Age: 34 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- These sanctions could introduce significant risks in our portfolio related to shipping insurance.
- I am worried about job security if the company loses major clients.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Retail worker (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 28 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I don't follow these issues closely, but I'm concerned about gas prices going up again.
- If my commute costs increase, it really impacts my budget.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Shipping logistics manager (Seattle, WA)
Age: 52 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This policy might compel us to diversify routes, increasing the complexity of logistics.
- While it guards against geopolitical risks, it imposes operational stiffening.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 9 |
Economist (Chicago, IL)
Age: 60 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 9
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- From an economic standpoint, it's a delicate balance to strike – sanctions can stabilize but also disrupt markets.
- There is potential for wider economic ramifications that need to be carefully managed.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Home care provider (Atlanta, GA)
Age: 40 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Higher fuel prices directly affect my cost of living and ability to provide necessities for my family.
- I hope such policies have clear benefits because they do come at a personal cost.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
University student (Boston, MA)
Age: 22 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 15/20
Statement of Opinion:
- This is an important geopolitical maneuver, but complex economies can face backlash in such regulation montages.
- My educational interest aligns with understanding these global challenges.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Renewable energy consultant (Portland, OR)
Age: 49 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Sanctions could accelerate shifts to renewables, but they must consider immediate energy accessibility issues.
- We need policies that help us transition smoothly without energy gaps.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Small business owner (Miami, FL)
Age: 37 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 4.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- The policy's impact on shipping could influence my overhead costs potentially altering pricing strategies.
- I support international peace, but domestic economic policies should not create undue burden.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Tech Industry Professional (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 57 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Rising energy prices as a result of such policies might affect operational costs for high-energy industries.
- Contingencies are in place, but it's a tricky scenario to navigate efficiently.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $100000000 (Low: $75000000, High: $125000000)
Year 2: $90000000 (Low: $65000000, High: $115000000)
Year 3: $85000000 (Low: $60000000, High: $110000000)
Year 5: $80000000 (Low: $55000000, High: $100000000)
Year 10: $50000000 (Low: $30000000, High: $75000000)
Year 100: $10000000 (Low: $5000000, High: $20000000)
Key Considerations
- Potential retaliatory actions by China or other impacted countries on U.S. exports or services.
- Impact on global energy markets, potentially increasing prices temporarily and affecting global supply chains.
- Legal and diplomatic challenges in enforcing sanctions and monitoring compliance.
- The broader geopolitical implications, possibly affecting international relations and further complicating economic partnerships.