Bill Overview
Title: A bill to require the reimposition of sanctions with respect to the FARC.
Description: This bill directs the President to designate the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) as a foreign terrorist organization and impose sanctions on FARC and any foreign person affiliated with FARC.
Sponsors: Sen. Cruz, Ted [R-TX]
Target Audience
Population: People directly or indirectly associated with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC)
Estimated Size: 1000
- FARC is a Colombian guerrilla group with historical involvement in armed conflict, political activities, and drug trafficking.
- Sanctions can affect people directly affiliated with FARC by limiting their ability to conduct international business and travel.
- Sanctions also indirectly affect civilians in areas controlled or influenced by FARC due to economic conditions and pressure on local economies.
- People involved in international trade or work with entities linked to FARC will be impacted by the sanctions.
- Members of the global community involved in counter-terrorism and security initiatives will be watching the impacts of the sanctions.
Reasoning
- Given the nature of the policy, the most impacted individuals in the US would likely be those with direct ties to Colombia and FARC-related activities. This includes people in international business, security, human rights, and the Colombian American community.
- The budget restrictions suggest a focus on operational costs related to implementing the sanctions and perhaps minimal support or outreach programs to affected communities domestically.
- Given the relatively small target population (estimated at around 1000 in the US), the individual impact may range from non-existent to moderate, reflecting the diversity in proximity and involvement with FARC-related activities.
- The overall wellbeing impact on most Americans will likely be negligible, but those with personal or professional connections to Colombia might experience emotional or economic consequences.
Simulated Interviews
Human Rights Advocate (New York, NY)
Age: 35 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I have mixed feelings about this policy. On one hand, it might curb some illegal activities connected to FARC. On the other, sanctions can hurt innocent people in Colombia and potentially affect familial ties.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Import/Export Business Owner (Miami, FL)
Age: 50 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- These sanctions can be cumbersome, potentially creating more bureaucratic hurdles for legal trade, impacting business operations.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Government Security Analyst (Washington, D.C.)
Age: 40 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- It's a positive step for US national security interests, making it harder for FARC to operate internationally. However, we need to ensure it doesn’t affect America’s diplomatic relations negatively.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
NGO Field Worker (Los Angeles, CA)
Age: 28 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Top-down sanctions like these can sometimes unintentionally worsen conditions for ordinary people, though they aim to undermine hostile groups.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 4 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Colombian Immigrant (Dallas, TX)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I’m worried these sanctions might complicate sending money to my family or affect their local economy severely.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 5 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 8 |
Retired (Seattle, WA)
Age: 60 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I think these measures are necessary to protect national security, though it probably won’t affect me directly.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Corporate Lawyer (Chicago, IL)
Age: 30 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Sanctions enforcement is part of my job, so clarity and precision in these laws are crucial to avoid business disruptions.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
College Student (Boston, MA)
Age: 22 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I’m curious about how this move will influence Colombia’s political landscape and US foreign policy.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Retired Military (Phoenix, AZ)
Age: 65 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- While these are necessary actions for security reasons, they should be carefully monitored to ensure they are achieving the desired outcomes without counterproductive results.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Philanthropist (Houston, TX)
Age: 53 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 9
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- These sanctions could impact philanthropic efforts if they cause broader economic challenges in the regions where we operate.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 9 |
| Year 5 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 10 | 9 | 9 |
| Year 20 | 9 | 9 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $15000000 (Low: $10000000, High: $20000000)
Year 2: $14000000 (Low: $9000000, High: $19000000)
Year 3: $13000000 (Low: $8000000, High: $18000000)
Year 5: $12000000 (Low: $7000000, High: $17000000)
Year 10: $10500000 (Low: $6000000, High: $15000000)
Year 100: $5000000 (Low: $3000000, High: $8000000)
Key Considerations
- Administrative and enforcement costs could vary significantly if additional resources or technologies are required.
- Potential diplomatic efforts and negotiations could incur unpredictable costs, depending on international response.