Bill Overview
Title: Reduce Exacerbated Inflation Negatively Impacting the Nation Act
Description: This bill requires the Office of Management and Budget and the Council of Economic Advisers to provide an inflation estimate for each executive order that is projected to cause an annual gross budgetary effect of at least $1 billion. The estimate must determine whether the executive order will have no significant impact on inflation, a quantifiable inflationary impact on the consumer price index, or a significant impact on inflation that cannot be quantified at the time the estimate is prepared. The requirement does not apply to executive orders that (1) provide for emergency assistance or relief at the request of any state or local government or an official of the government, or (2) are necessary for national security or the ratification or implementation of international treaty obligations.
Sponsors: Sen. Braun, Mike [R-IN]
Target Audience
Population: People affected by inflation worldwide
Estimated Size: 330000000
- The bill impacts the assessment of executive orders in terms of their inflationary impact.
- By requiring estimates of inflation impacts, this may influence the drafting and implementation of executive orders.
- All individuals who are affected by inflation dynamics in the economy could potentially be impacted by policies designed through these assessments.
Reasoning
- The policy primarily impacts the bureaucratic processes within the federal government and the decision-making of lawmakers and lobbyists who influence them; hence, direct impacts on individual wellbeing scores may not be immediately substantial for the majority of citizens.
- Inflation affects all individuals indirectly by changing the cost of living; thus, the potential benefits of this policy could spread widely over time.
- The Cantril scale is used to measure self-reported wellbeing and reflects personal and environmental conditions over time.
- While many U.S. residents could potentially experience minor improvements due to stability in inflation rates, only those acutely affected by inflationary pressures (e.g., low-income populations) may report noticeable improvements initially.
- Given budget constraints, a direct financial impact on individuals through this policy is unlikely; benefits are more systemic.
- I simulated individuals from a range of demographics including those with high, moderate, and low exposure to inflation-related issues to gauge varying reactions.
Simulated Interviews
Petroleum Engineer (Houston, TX)
Age: 35 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Inflation insights could stabilize my industry, which often reacts unfavorably to unpredictable economic changes.
- A tighter fiscal oversight might prevent sudden economic shocks.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Retired Teacher (Miami, FL)
Age: 63 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 10.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I worry about how inflation might erode my pension.
- Knowing that inflationary impacts are being assessed could ease my mind slightly.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 4 |
Software Developer (Seattle, WA)
Age: 28 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I hope policies like this help control living costs in cities like Seattle.
- Rent hikes are a constant worry; any help is welcome.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
Small Business Owner (Chicago, IL)
Age: 45 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- An official measure might influence how costs trickle down from suppliers.
- If inflation is better predicted, I might plan my business better.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 4 |
Real Estate Agent (Phoenix, AZ)
Age: 52 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Understanding broader economic effects could stabilize the housing market.
- A stable economy means steadier commissions and better planning for clients.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 5 |
Graduate Student (San Francisco, CA)
Age: 24 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 1.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Knowing inflation impacts might prevent tuition hikes.
- It's hard to see immediate benefits, but I'm hopeful.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 5 | 4 |
| Year 5 | 5 | 4 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 3 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 3 |
Nurse (Detroit, MI)
Age: 39 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 7.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Healthcare costs have to be kept in check, so any policy affecting that is relevant.
- I hope inflation checks stabilize my profession's wages.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 4 |
Investment Banker (New York, NY)
Age: 55 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 9
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Inflation evaluations are crucial for financial stability and investment decisions.
- It aligns well with professional interests in economic forecasting.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 9 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Tech Entrepreneur (Boston, MA)
Age: 48 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 4.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Predictable inflation might stabilize growth phases for startups like mine.
- Helps in strategic planning and forecasting.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 5 |
Farmer (Rural Idaho)
Age: 31 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 8.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Any insight into inflation could help stabilize our input costs.
- Policies often overlook rural issues, hopeful this helps.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 4 |
| Year 10 | 5 | 4 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 4 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $20000000 (Low: $15000000, High: $30000000)
Year 2: $21000000 (Low: $16000000, High: $31500000)
Year 3: $22050000 (Low: $16800000, High: $33075000)
Year 5: $24150000 (Low: $18450000, High: $36225000)
Year 10: $29500000 (Low: $22500000, High: $44250000)
Year 100: $60000000 (Low: $46000000, High: $90000000)
Key Considerations
- The cost estimation assumes a significant number of executive orders surpassing the $1 billion gross budgetary effect threshold.
- The administrative workload of providing inflation estimates will depend on the number and complexity of the executive orders requiring assessment.
- Inflation assessments are advisory in nature; the actual impact depends on policymakers' utilization of the information provided.
- Possible resistance or policy adaptation challenges should the assessments indicate negative inflation impacts of popular executive orders.