Policy Impact Analysis - 117/S/4570

Bill Overview

Title: Transnational Criminal Organization Illicit Spotter Prevention and Elimination Act

Description: This bill provides for criminal penalties for certain conduct that interferes with U.S. border control measures. Specifically, a person who knowingly transmits the location or activities of law enforcement with the intent to further a crime related to immigration, customs, or controlled substances may be imprisoned for a maximum of 10 years. A person who knowingly damages or destroys a device deployed to control the border or port of entry may be imprisoned for a maximum of 10 years. Additionally, the bill provides for enhanced punishment for carrying or using a firearm in connection with certain criminal immigration violations such as assisting a non-U.S. national ( alien under federal law) who is inadmissible due to a felony conviction.

Sponsors: Sen. Ernst, Joni [R-IA]

Target Audience

Population: Individuals involved with transnational criminal organizations affecting U.S. border control

Estimated Size: 30000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Law enforcement officer (Tucson, Arizona)

Age: 35 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I believe this policy will aid us significantly in reducing illegal activities at the border.
  • It will allow us to prosecute those who interfere with our operations more effectively.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 7
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 9 7
Year 10 9 6
Year 20 8 6

Border patrol agent (El Paso, Texas)

Age: 40 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 15/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The additional legal tools at our disposal will act as strong deterrents against illegal smuggling operations.
  • It should help in reducing tampering with our surveillance equipment.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 8 6
Year 5 8 6
Year 10 9 6
Year 20 8 5

College student (San Diego, California)

Age: 28 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 12/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy seems well-intentioned but might over-penalize minor infractions.
  • I'm concerned about its impact on innocent bystanders who might unintentionally get involved.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 5 5
Year 3 5 5
Year 5 5 5
Year 10 5 5
Year 20 5 5

Immigration attorney (Phoenix, Arizona)

Age: 34 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 4

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 18/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy could lead to increased fear and mistrust among immigrant communities.
  • We need to ensure it does not infringe on the rights of those not involved in criminal activities.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 4 4
Year 2 4 4
Year 3 4 5
Year 5 4 5
Year 10 5 5
Year 20 5 6

Defense contractor employee (Los Angeles, California)

Age: 45 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This bill will increase demand for advanced surveillance technologies, which is great for our business.
  • It's an opportunity to improve border security effectively.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 9 8
Year 2 9 8
Year 3 10 8
Year 5 10 8
Year 10 9 7
Year 20 8 7

Local politician (Houston, Texas)

Age: 55 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 2.0 years

Commonness: 17/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This law might cause unintended harm to communities who feel targeted by increased law enforcement activity.
  • We must ensure clear lines of communication and protect civil liberties.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 5 5
Year 3 5 5
Year 5 5 5
Year 10 5 6
Year 20 6 7

Community organizer (New Mexico)

Age: 38 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 4

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 14/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • We fear this policy will increase distrust between immigrant communities and law enforcement.
  • Increased penalties could disproportionately affect marginalized communities.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 4 4
Year 2 4 4
Year 3 3 5
Year 5 3 5
Year 10 3 5
Year 20 4 6

Tech entrepreneur (Texas)

Age: 30 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This presents an opportunity for us to expand our business by developing cutting-edge solutions for border control.
  • We must ensure technology balances security needs and personal privacy.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 8 6
Year 3 8 6
Year 5 9 6
Year 10 9 6
Year 20 8 7

Retired border patrol veteran (Nogales, Arizona)

Age: 64 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 4.0 years

Commonness: 15/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This legislation is a positive step towards strengthening our border security.
  • However, it could strain community relations if not implemented carefully.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 6 5
Year 5 6 5
Year 10 6 5
Year 20 6 5

Social worker (McAllen, Texas)

Age: 27 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 3

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 20/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm worried about the broader impact on families residing in border areas.
  • It's critical to address the root causes of immigration, not just increase penalties.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 3 3
Year 2 3 4
Year 3 3 4
Year 5 4 4
Year 10 4 4
Year 20 5 5

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $500000000 (Low: $400000000, High: $600000000)

Year 2: $475000000 (Low: $375000000, High: $575000000)

Year 3: $450000000 (Low: $350000000, High: $550000000)

Year 5: $400000000 (Low: $300000000, High: $500000000)

Year 10: $350000000 (Low: $250000000, High: $450000000)

Year 100: $0 (Low: $0, High: $0)

Key Considerations