Policy Impact Analysis - 117/S/4554

Bill Overview

Title: Iran Nuclear Weapons Capability Monitoring Act of 2022

Description: This bill requires the Department of State to establish a task force to consolidate and synthesize efforts to monitor and assess Iran's nuclear weapons activity. The State Department must also report on Iran's nuclear activity and submit a diplomatic strategy for engaging U.S. allies regarding Iran's nuclear weapons and missile activities.

Sponsors: Sen. Graham, Lindsey [R-SC]

Target Audience

Population: People globally who have a stake in international peace and security

Estimated Size: 332000000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Foreign Policy Analyst (Washington D.C.)

Age: 35 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The enhancement of monitoring abilities will strengthen the U.S.'s diplomatic stance and lead to more informed policy decisions.
  • I believe that focusing on diplomatic strategies with allies will help prevent escalation in the region.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 7
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 9 7
Year 10 9 8
Year 20 10 8

Factory Worker (Kansas City, MO)

Age: 50 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I don't see how this affects me day-to-day, but I hope it doesn't lead to higher taxes.
  • Security from nuclear threats is important, but I’m not sure this policy is worth the cost.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 5 5
Year 3 5 5
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 6 6
Year 20 6 6

Graduate Student (New York, NY)

Age: 28 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 15.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The bill's strategy could foster peaceful engagements, which makes me hopeful about future global interactions.
  • It seems like a step forward in responsibly managing a potential threat.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 8 6
Year 3 8 6
Year 5 9 7
Year 10 9 7
Year 20 9 7

Elementary School Teacher (Los Angeles, CA)

Age: 43 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 3.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Improving international security is crucial, but it feels distant from the issues we face locally.
  • I appreciate efforts to prevent nuclear proliferation but wonder if funds could also support education and local services.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 8 7
Year 20 8 7

Retired Military Officer (Boston, MA)

Age: 60 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 2/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy is essential to maintain our strategic advantage and ensure long-term peace.
  • I support any action that brings our allies together to address international threats.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 7
Year 2 9 7
Year 3 9 8
Year 5 9 8
Year 10 9 8
Year 20 10 9

Tech Startup Founder (Seattle, WA)

Age: 25 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • As someone interested in innovation for peace, I see the potential benefits of this policy.
  • I’m skeptical about governmental efficiency, but coordination might lead to technological advancements in monitoring.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 8 7
Year 20 8 7

Oil Rig Inspector (Houston, TX)

Age: 37 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 15.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Stable international relations mean stable energy prices, which is good for business.
  • I'm supportive of any measure that helps avoid conflicts that could disrupt energy supplies.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 7
Year 2 8 7
Year 3 8 7
Year 5 9 7
Year 10 9 8
Year 20 9 8

Undergraduate Student (Miami, FL)

Age: 22 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 4.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I see the need for constant vigilance but question whether this fiscal allocation is the most impactful.
  • Educational policies feel more pressing at the moment, but I do care about global safety.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 5 5
Year 2 5 5
Year 3 6 5
Year 5 6 6
Year 10 6 6
Year 20 7 6

International Law Professor (Chicago, IL)

Age: 55 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 3/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Policies like these are vital to maintain international law and order.
  • This could serve as a diplomatic tool to encourage compliance among states.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 9 8
Year 2 9 8
Year 3 9 8
Year 5 9 9
Year 10 10 9
Year 20 10 9

Public Health Coordinator (Atlanta, GA)

Age: 48 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Geopolitical stability impacts public health indirectly through stress and resources availability.
  • I support the policy but wish its scope included more direct public health measures.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 8 7
Year 10 8 7
Year 20 8 7

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $50000000 (Low: $30000000, High: $70000000)

Year 2: $52000000 (Low: $31200000, High: $72800000)

Year 3: $54080000 (Low: $32448000, High: $75712000)

Year 5: $58320000 (Low: $35088000, High: $81648000)

Year 10: $67473000 (Low: $40599600, High: $94362200)

Year 100: $15716975000 (Low: $9430185000, High: $21946765000)

Key Considerations