Policy Impact Analysis - 117/S/4531

Bill Overview

Title: A bill to codify certain public land orders relating to the revocation of certain withdrawals of public land in the State of Alaska.

Description: This bill enacts into law the provisions of certain public land orders relating to the revocation of the withdrawal of certain public lands in Alaska.

Sponsors: Sen. Murkowski, Lisa [R-AK]

Target Audience

Population: People in Alaska relying on or using public lands affected by order changes

Estimated Size: 740000

Reasoning

Simulated Interviews

Oil industry worker (Anchorage, Alaska)

Age: 35 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 10/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • As someone in the oil industry, changes to land orders can either spell new opportunities or sudden restrictions.
  • We often hear about these land withdrawals affecting our access and projects.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 6 6
Year 3 6 5
Year 5 7 5
Year 10 7 5
Year 20 6 5

Fisherman (Fairbanks, Alaska)

Age: 50 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 5/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Our livelihood depends on access to these lands and rivers.
  • Any changes to land use could severely affect our community and income.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 8 6
Year 5 8 6
Year 10 9 6
Year 20 9 5

Environmental activist (Juneau, Alaska)

Age: 28 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 6/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This policy could protect crucial habitats and respect Native lands, which is a win for conservation efforts.
  • We hope it leads to more sustainable use of public lands.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 5
Year 2 6 5
Year 3 7 5
Year 5 7 5
Year 10 8 5
Year 20 8 5

Native Alaskan leader (Barrow, Alaska)

Age: 45 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 5

Duration of Impact: 20.0 years

Commonness: 4/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • The revocation of withdrawals needs to respect our ancestral land rights and cultural practices.
  • We view this policy as potentially respectful if it improves our legal standing over these lands.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 5
Year 2 7 5
Year 3 8 5
Year 5 9 5
Year 10 9 5
Year 20 9 5

Food supply chain manager (Seattle, Washington)

Age: 52 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 7

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 8/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • While the policy is localized, it could affect out-of-state supply chains if it impacts fisheries.
  • We're keeping an eye on potential resource access changes.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 7
Year 2 7 7
Year 3 7 7
Year 5 7 7
Year 10 7 7
Year 20 7 7

Teacher (Bethel, Alaska)

Age: 39 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 6

Duration of Impact: 10.0 years

Commonness: 9/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • This could positively or negatively affect our access to lands and waterways critical for food and culture.
  • We need assurances that traditional activities are respected.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 6 6
Year 2 7 6
Year 3 7 6
Year 5 8 6
Year 10 8 6
Year 20 8 6

Hiking trail guide (Anchorage, Alaska)

Age: 34 | Gender: other

Wellbeing Before Policy: 9

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 7/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Our business thrives when public lands are accessible.
  • Changes in public land orders might influence our routes and the safety of trails.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 9
Year 2 8 9
Year 3 8 9
Year 5 8 9
Year 10 7 9
Year 20 7 9

Student (Kodiak, Alaska)

Age: 26 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 2.0 years

Commonness: 15/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Studying these policy changes is interesting academically, though the real-world impacts can be significant.
  • The balance between nature and industry is crucial.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 8 8
Year 2 8 8
Year 3 8 8
Year 5 8 8
Year 10 8 8
Year 20 8 8

Retired (Sitka, Alaska)

Age: 60 | Gender: female

Wellbeing Before Policy: 8

Duration of Impact: 5.0 years

Commonness: 12/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • I'm concerned that land changes could limit where I can fish and hike.
  • It's important for me to have access to these areas for my wellbeing.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 7 8
Year 2 7 8
Year 3 7 8
Year 5 7 8
Year 10 7 8
Year 20 7 8

Policy analyst (New York, New York)

Age: 46 | Gender: male

Wellbeing Before Policy: 9

Duration of Impact: 0.0 years

Commonness: 18/20

Statement of Opinion:

  • Observing how local policies shift land management strategies is fascinating.
  • The Alaskan public land situation often serves as a precursor or test case for broader federal policies.

Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)

Year With Policy Without Policy
Year 1 9 9
Year 2 9 9
Year 3 9 9
Year 5 9 9
Year 10 9 9
Year 20 9 9

Cost Estimates

Year 1: $1500000 (Low: $1000000, High: $2000000)

Year 2: $1455000 (Low: $970000, High: $1930000)

Year 3: $1411500 (Low: $941000, High: $1872000)

Year 5: $1327275 (Low: $883000, High: $1758400)

Year 10: $1120177 (Low: $736000, High: $1465880)

Year 100: $552672 (Low: $363000, High: $723476)

Key Considerations