Bill Overview
Title: No Emergency Crude Oil for Foreign Adversaries Act
Description: This bill prohibits exports of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran. Specifically, the bill directs the Department of Energy (DOE) to require as a condition of any sale of crude oil from the SPR that the oil not be exported to such countries. However, DOE may issue a waiver of the prohibition if the sale of crude oil is in the national security interests of the United States. In addition, DOE must report on (1) the route to destination and place of refinement of all crude oil sold at auction from the SPR since November 23, 2021, and (2) the ownership of the refinement facilities at which such crude oil was refined.
Sponsors: Sen. Cruz, Ted [R-TX]
Target Audience
Population: People affected by changes in global oil market dynamics
Estimated Size: 330000000
- The bill impacts countries designated as foreign adversaries, specifically China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran, which are restricted from accessing crude oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
- Oil markets and global shipping routes may be impacted due to altered trade dynamics resulting from the prohibition.
- Countries and international businesses interacting with these adversary nations may experience indirect effects due to changes in oil supply availability.
- The international community is concerned due to potential changes in oil prices and trade relations, affecting global citizens to some extent.
Reasoning
- The policy primarily targets the international relations aspect of oil sales, specifically limiting certain foreign adversaries from accessing the US Strategic Petroleum Reserves. Therefore, the direct impact on most average Americans might be minimal in the short term, but there can be subtle shifts in market prices due to changes in global supply.
- Energy industry workers and businesses involved with SPR could be affected more significantly if the policy changes how the US engages in oil trade. They might either adjust operations to comply with new restrictions or find alternative markets.
- Consumers could see fluctuations in gasoline prices depending on how the policy affects global oil prices.
- Given the allocation of funds mentioned, the assumption is that the policy has budget constraints to maintain strategic reserves and monitor compliance, which indirectly influences domestic oil pricing and availability.
- The average consumer might not notice immediate changes, but should the policy indirectly alter market dynamics or provoke reciprocal actions by foreign countries, there could be a delayed effect on prices.
Simulated Interviews
Petroleum Engineer (Texas)
Age: 42 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 5/20
Statement of Opinion:
- I think the policy addresses national security concerns by limiting resource access to adversarial nations.
- It could initially complicate exports, but might ensure domestically available oil remains steady.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 6 |
Environmental Scientist (California)
Age: 51 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Reducing exports to adversarial countries might realign some domestic priorities towards sustainable energy.
- Hopefully, it doesn't just shift sales to other countries without any environmental considerations.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 8 |
Small Business Owner (New York)
Age: 34 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 4.0 years
Commonness: 6/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Uneven global oil market dynamics could affect interstate cargo shipping costs.
- I hope it stabilizes prices rather than increasing logistical challenges.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 5 |
Oil Rig Worker (Louisiana)
Age: 28 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 5
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 4/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Policy could lead to job security concerns if there's a significant market shift.
- It might ensure long-term job stability by securing domestic resources, though.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 5 | 5 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 4 |
| Year 3 | 6 | 4 |
| Year 5 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 5 | 5 |
Retired (Florida)
Age: 59 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 2.0 years
Commonness: 8/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Stock markets may react to initial implementation of the policy, affecting returns.
- Diversified stock options should mitigate adverse impacts.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Public School Teacher (Illinois)
Age: 40 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 10/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Educational opportunities arise to discuss impacts and strategies related to national resources and security.
- Domestic prioritization could be stronger in energy education and policy discussion.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Retired Farmer (Ohio)
Age: 67 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 4.0 years
Commonness: 3/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Previous swings in fuel prices during geopolitical unrest were significant.
- Policy might provide stability domestically if managed well.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 6 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 6 |
Energy Policy Analyst (New Jersey)
Age: 45 | Gender: female
Wellbeing Before Policy: 8
Duration of Impact: 5.0 years
Commonness: 2/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Policy refinement and tracking of SPR distributions is crucial for transparent trade.
- Could preempt global oil supply instability by proactive domestic resource management.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 8 | 8 |
| Year 2 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 8 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 8 | 7 |
Freelancer (Nevada)
Age: 32 | Gender: other
Wellbeing Before Policy: 6
Duration of Impact: 3.0 years
Commonness: 7/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Interested in how policy will scale tech solutions for tracking and compliance.
- There could be lucrative tech opportunities in monitoring and enforcement.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 6 | 6 |
| Year 2 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 5 |
| Year 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Year 20 | 6 | 5 |
College Student (Pennsylvania)
Age: 30 | Gender: male
Wellbeing Before Policy: 7
Duration of Impact: 0.0 years
Commonness: 12/20
Statement of Opinion:
- Policy is a case study on balancing national security and international trade.
- Analytical discussions on potential ramifications are fascinating.
Wellbeing Over Time (With vs Without Policy)
| Year | With Policy | Without Policy |
|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 2 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 3 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 5 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 10 | 7 | 7 |
| Year 20 | 7 | 7 |
Cost Estimates
Year 1: $10000000 (Low: $5000000, High: $15000000)
Year 2: $10500000 (Low: $5250000, High: $15750000)
Year 3: $11025000 (Low: $5512500, High: $16537500)
Year 5: $12155000 (Low: $6077500, High: $18232500)
Year 10: $13439125 (Low: $6719563, High: $20158687)
Year 100: $261652165 (Low: $130826083, High: $392478247)
Key Considerations
- The policy impacts international oil market dynamics due to the strategic significance of the SPR.
- Monitoring and reporting requirements will need to be effective and transparent to ensure compliance and mitigate adversarial circumventions.
- Potential shifts in domestic oil pricing could impact consumer prices in the U.S.